RE:Trip Down Memory LaneGoldbuggy1 wrote:
In the Q4 Report ending December 31, 2011 LIQ showed a Cash Flow of $1.88/share. They paid a Dividend of $1.08/share. So from Cash Flow they had an extra $0.80/share to pay for other things. As of the Q4 Report ending December 31, 2015 LIQ showed a Cash Flow of $1.13/share. They will pay $0.36/share on Dividends. So from Cash Flow they will have $0.77/share. Or now $0.03/share less than they had in December 31, 2011. But there have also been some big changes since 2011. For one thing the company had about 5 M share less than then they do today. In 2011 cost were also lower than they are today as in wages, leases, utilities, etc. Also the company debt was a lot lower to. Keep in mind that Interest Payments from Bank Loans and Debentures comes out of there Cash Flow. But perhaps the biggest change from December 31, 2011 until December 31, 2015 has been in the Alberta and Alaskan Economy. Oil Prices then were over a $100/bbl. Both Economies then were Booming. Alberta had a high influx of immigration and enjoyed low unemployment, and almost the best in the land. In 2011 they had a steady increase in both income and also workers, which are both good for the Liquor Business. This reflected in this companies growth were in 2011 there SSSG increased in Canada was 3.7% and in the USA to 1.6%. So things have changed a lot since then where unemployment now in Alberta has increased from 4.5% to over 7% and immigration is flat. Where SSSG in Canada last Quarter was only 0.3% and only one twelfth of what it was 5 years ago. Keep in mind that the 35 Stores in B.C. also count in this Canadian SSSG and they have been doing okay. So they probably pulled LIQ SSSG out of negative numbers from Alberta last quarter. Sales in the USA were also bad last Quarter compared to 2011. They only showed an increase in SSSG in 2015 of 0.5% compare to 1.6% in 2011. Or about one fifth of what is was in 2011. It doesn't take Astrophysics to figure this all out. It just takes you to ask yourself a Logical Question. "If this company could not make a go of it in 2011, with more money to spend back then on growth then they have today, with 5 Million Less Shareholders sitting at the same table to feed then they do today, when costs and inflation was so much more lower in 2011, and when in 2011 the Alberta Economy was Booming, but now has slumped, how do you expect this company to show these huge gains now and what others are talking about, when things are much worst now in 2016 then they were in 2011? Keep in mind that Cash Flow I this company has dropped from $1.88/share in 2011 to $1.13/share in 2015. Is it really difficult to see which direction they are headed? Would another cut in the Divided to Zero be more convincing for you? https://www.liquorstoresna.ca/Portals/5/documents/Press%20Releases/General/Q4%20Press%20Release%20-%20FINAL.pdf
Oh Yeah! I almost forgot to mention this also. In 2011, when the company had a Cash Flow of $1.88/share and spent $1.08/share on Dividends and thus had $0.80/share to spend on other things, compared to $0.77 now, there was also another big difference from then to now. Back then, when this company spent $1.08/share on Dividends, the Yield on this Dividend on October 03, 2011 as about 7.9%. Today it sits at about 4.5%. Had this company offer a 4.5% Dividend back in 2011, they would only have had to spend about $0.61/share on Dividends, thus giving them a total of $1.27 to spend on other things and not just $0.77 which they have today. So besides these tough Economical Times in Alberta and Alaska, and these Strong Head Winds this company keeps telling everyone they are facing right now, and yet it seems nobody believes them, and having $0.03/share less in Cash Flow to spend now then they did when times where much better, they also offer a Dividend which pays 3.4% less now then it did back then in 2011. So I could understand why people would jump on this stock back after October 03, 2011, and as they did. But Now! Why?