Valuation of TST for Outcome ScenariosCASE 1............MCNA has zero value
Cash and liquid inverstmenta.......................$50 million
Manufacturing plant/real estate....................$5 million
TSX listing....................................................$5 million
$112 million tax loss pools...........................$30 million
Total value = $90 million ( $0.27 per share )..
Note......tax pool times 27 % tax rate = $30 millin
CASE 2.......MCNA gets approved outside USA
Ipsen deal is $137 million US ( $180 million cad ) in upfront and milestone payments.
Total value = $90 million + $180 million = $270 million cad ( $0.81 per share
CASE 3.....MCNA is approved by the FDA for US
TST will manufacture and sell MCNA in the US.
Peak sales estimated in the $250 to $400 million US range.
Assume $250 million US.
Peer valuations = 3 times peak sales = $750 million US = $1 billion cad
Total Valuation = $270 million + $1 billion = $1.27 billion = $3.90 per share
There is another case...that MCNA receives partial approval for a subset of patient disease range
Its not possible to value such an outcome at present but it would be between Case 11 and case 111
Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/bullboard/t.tst/telesta-therapeutics-inc#ozrkpvI2Cw2BZL5O.99