RE:RE:Q1 EPS estimate worksheet Pj1958 wrote: Your math is right on....I guess the only unknown here is the FX , and that may be why the concensus is $1.33. The Fx has been trending in CXR's favour lately....but we are talking Q1
here , and the British pound was weaker then.
cg16 wrote:
Did Mark actually give guidance for Q1? I only remember seeing $6.29-$6.77 EPS/ $1.02B-$1.06B for full year 2016.
Ridgeway lowered to $1.40 for Q1 and his last report said that concensus is $1.33.
Does anyone have a number from Mark for Q1? CXR did $1.24 in Q4. if Amco revenune only counted 71/90 days of the 4th quarter, does it mean the business only needs to be flat from Q4 to Q1 and it will do $1.33? is my math correct?
You are correct. MT only guided a full year and not quarter by quarter. But there is a way to extrapolate Q4 results to arrive at a Q1 EPS.
Here is my take.
Since AMCo comprises roughly 60% of the total EPS of $1.24, AMCo's EPS represents .744 cents.
Since the .744 cents represent 72 days, we cross multiply to extrapolate 92 days.
.744 x 92= 68.448
Now divide by 72
68.448 / 72= .95
So the AMCo's extrapolated EPS for (full 3 months) 92 days is $.95 cents.
Now we subtract the .774 cents (representing 72 days) of AMCo from the Q4 EPS of $1.24, and substitute the extrapolated $.95 cents.
1.24 - .744 = .496
.496 + .95 = $1.446
So the extrapolated EPS for the full Q1 should fall around $1.44 - $1.45.
This exceeds all analysts consensus of $1.33
Hope you follow my math.
[/quote]
Thanks PJ. As the guys in the CC mentioned the FX should works itself out in the wash. The US dollar was booming in Q1 and they get 40% in USD. That should offset the € denominated cost and help with the £ denominated debt.
I guess the slimy shorts didn't like my math with a $1.44 EPS ....hence the 1/2 star. Haha