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Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R



TSX:CXR.R - Post by User

Comment by Stockcoach1on Apr 14, 2016 3:42pm
85 Views
Post# 24767824

RE:RE:RE:RE:Q1 EPS estimate worksheet

RE:RE:RE:RE:Q1 EPS estimate worksheet Adam, that migh be the surprise. After all you don't get to $6.40 annual EPS earning with 1.45 / Q. There has to be some growth along the way.


adamchess wrote: Thanks for the math. It looks good. Only question I have is: shouldn't the 1st qtr US results be better than the 4th qtr 2015 results? Maybe AMCo will do better also quarter over quarter? Cheers.


Stockcoach1 wrote:
Pj1958 wrote: Your math is right on....I guess the only unknown here is the FX , and that may be why the concensus is $1.33. The Fx has been trending in CXR's favour lately....but we are talking Q1
here , and the British pound was weaker then. 







cg16 wrote:
Did Mark actually give guidance for Q1? I only remember seeing $6.29-$6.77 EPS/ $1.02B-$1.06B for full year 2016.
Ridgeway lowered to $1.40 for Q1 and his last report said that concensus is $1.33.
Does anyone have a number from Mark for Q1? CXR did $1.24 in Q4. if Amco revenune only counted 71/90 days of the 4th quarter, does it mean the business only needs to be flat from Q4 to Q1 and it will do $1.33? is my math correct?

 
 
 
 
You are correct. MT only guided a full year and not quarter by quarter. But there is a way to extrapolate Q4 results to arrive at a Q1 EPS.
 
Here is my take.
 
Since AMCo comprises roughly 60% of the total EPS of $1.24, AMCo's EPS represents .744 cents.
 
Since the .744 cents represent 72 days, we cross multiply to extrapolate 92 days.
 
.744 x 92= 68.448
Now divide by 72
68.448 / 72= .95 
 
So the AMCo's extrapolated EPS for (full 3 months) 92 days is $.95 cents.
 
Now we subtract the .774 cents (representing 72 days) of AMCo from the Q4 EPS of $1.24, and substitute the extrapolated  $.95 cents.
 
1.24 - .744 = .496
 
.496 + .95 = $1.446
 
So the extrapolated EPS for the full Q1 should fall around $1.44 - $1.45.
 
This exceeds all analysts consensus of $1.33
 
Hope you follow my math.
 

 


Thanks PJ. As the guys in the CC mentioned the FX should works itself out in the wash. The US dollar was booming in Q1 and they get 40% in USD. That should offset the € denominated cost and help with the £ denominated debt.

I guess the slimy shorts didn't like my math with a $1.44 EPS ....hence the 1/2 star. Haha


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