RE:Sky is the Limit & Time is the LadderA good post but a couple of quick points:
All permits are not in place but I beleive they are a matter of time and process. Also "nearby ports" is relative but it's the same for all Saskatchewan based potash producers.
I don't see anywhere that Encanto is now India's sole supplier but the fact that they can currently supply any percentage from existing producers is quite remarkable. Over a year, 20,000,000 tons X $20 is still $20,000,000. It's worth noting that India buys between 4-5,000,000 tons per year and both POT and Mosaic are forecasting about 60,000,000 tons buying worldwide.
And gross revenues in full production would be 2,800,000 X $300 (a long term potash number well below what any are using is feasibility studies or POT is using for instance) X 20 years (Encanto has 50+ years proven) = $16.8B over 20 years and that's assuming no great premium with MMTC selling into other parts of Asia or expanding current mine capacity over the 2,800,000 tons
Truflasher wrote: Just my Thoughts Guys, Do your own DD.
It is very long but i assure it is worth the read. ( Read this with parallel to the NR, will make a lot of sense). I made this for a Complete Novice readers to the Board.
A company of Encanto magnitude can never realise the dream of production if it is not associated with the best in the business (MMTC). MMTC Backing, Support of Top government executives from both countries. Now or never time for Encanto.
1) It has Huge reserves and very high grade of Potash and it is Accessible very easily to the nearby Ports. (Production of Nearly $ 12 Billion in 20 years).
2) It has First nations support right from the start of the Process, It is ensured in the Recent News Release, read the Last paragraph it highlights the chief involvement in this mine. Muskowekwan First Nation Chief "Reginald Bellerose" is completely supporting the Mine as it will help First nations with Jobs and Royalties.
3) RCF approached Encanto way back in 2012, they visited Encanto mine, impressed by the scope and level of the Project referred it to MMTC, MMTC is the mother of all Potash industries in India. It is a Government Company. MMTC knows everything about Encanto and they decided to get into MOU to finalise the terms of the deal. Most of the MOU is done and it is a good sign that they are waiting for Government approval and in all Scenarios it is going to be approved.
4) India is Procuring Potash from Various Players like Potash Corp, Agrium, Uralkarali and ICL. The important thing is they signed deals to procure from these players till March 2016, Now they want to buy from a single source and appointed ENCANTO as the Supplier to source from them and supply to MMTC in the Near Future. (Near Future in turn is couple of months Away).
Refer to the dates of the Contract in the below links, it usually happens in May or June.
https://www.business-standard.com/content/b2b-chemicals/indian-potash-to-procure-80-000-tonne-of-potash-from-russia-s-uralkali-115050400482_1.html
https://www.business-standard.com/content/b2b-chemicals/canada-s-canpotex-inks-pact-with-indian-customers-to-supply-potash-115051100468_1.html
https://www.business-standard.com/content/b2b-chemicals/israel-s-icl-to-supply-835-000-tonnes-potash-to-india-115062200315_1.html
5) Indian companies tried and failed to make some kind of a Long term supply deal with Russian Uralkarli and some big companies, Finally they went with Encanto.
6) Encanto is looking to setup Joint trading company, from which it will be getting some kind of a commission for doing that which will provide them with some financial help. (Least figure 10 $ per tonne, it would be millions just to make the transaction work).
7) To Build the mine Encanto will need approx $ 3 Billion. Through the trading company they will be earning a portion of money to support their construction and also in the meantime MMTC will look for an Indian Bank to finance the project (with MMTC backing it is going to be fairly easy) like GFSC with KRN.
This is not complete without explaining India and the new Prime Minister. For him "World is the Market not just India".
Narendra Modi after being elected as PM in July 2014 has made remarkable changes the way the Government works. He is known for his efficiency at work, Quick approval of Projects. (He has shown his capability by transforming Gujarat from Backward state to a Model state).
In short he is "The best Businessman for india". After being elected he has gone to most of the foreign countries and made long term deals, bringing billions of dollars worth of Contracts.
One of the biggest things india is facing right now is Farmer suicides, they don't have enough returns for the crop. He is bringing sweeping changes in the Indian Agri sector( Look online for More details). He wants to double the production of farmers by 2022 and he is the first to bring Crop insurance at National level, Encouraging Farmers to continue farming and assuring them Proper returns in the Future.
Small Insight into his ways - Couple of days ago he went to Saudi and made a deal to supply pulses and other Agri products in the long term in exchange they will supply Cold storage equipments and Warehouses to store and sell Products to them.
India from being an importer of some Agriculture products will become net exporter of agriculture products to other Asian countries in the near future.
About Potash, Potash is not available in all the countries, Canada has 45% Reserve and Russia has 33%. The Suppliers are Few ( Encanto is one of the Few with all the Permits in Place).
India being almost same as the population as China, is way backward in every sector and as the world believes India is at the point where china was in 2002. India has got tremendous growth in the Next decade and imagine the potential with a leader like Modi at the TOP.
Now you tell me what this stock is worth, LOL $$$$$$$$$$$$$.