RE:This meeting is way overblown!Isnt that basically what I have been saying? thats why I dont ignore people for no reason just becasue last week their opinion was slightly different than mine.
Slinger14 wrote: Truthfully, what does this meeting even mean in combatting the glut? IMO, basically nothing! If they agree to a freeze, it doesn't solve the glut in any way. OPEC is pumping at near record levels. They can barely increase production if they tried so a freeze doesn't really do anything. The only country that will increase production by any meaningful amount is Iran. We knew they weren't participating in a freeze anyway and this is already baked into the price. If a freeze agreement is not reached, OPEC can't really increase production much anyway so that means very little as well. The only thing a freeze would do is confirm a bottom in prices which is already confirmed! This meeting is pointless and will do NOTHING to change the fundamentals of oil pricing. Iran has indicated they want to ramp up production by 1M bpd this year to meet pre-sanction levels. They have already increased 400k bpd. So that leaves 600k bpd added to market. The Saudis are basically maxed out. Russia has indicated they will produce less in 2016 than 2015. US production will be down 800k bpd in 2016 and another 600k bpd in 2017. Demand in 2016 is expected to increase by 1.2M bpd. So add all that up and we have up to a 1.4M bpd deficit at year end. The decline in US production will more than compensate for Iran's increased production. These are real numbers and tell the real story. This meeting is pure noise. Even if we have a couple countries increase slightly, we still have a large deficit in a year which continues to grow throughout 2017. So whatever the outcome of this meeting and the consequent rise/drop in oil price, it affects the big picture very little. Good luck to all. We have seen the bottom and the longs will be handsomely rewarded for ignoring the noise and volatility we have seen and will see in the near future.