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Old API Wind-down Ltd - Ordinary Shares ARLZQ

"Old API Wind-down Ltd, formerly Aralez Pharmaceuticals Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in the acquisition, development, and commercialization of products primarily in cardiovascular, pain management and other specialty areas. Its key products include Fiorinal, Proferrin, Fibricor, Uracyst and Neovisc, Cambia and other marketed products. The company currently operates in two geographical markets, the United States and Canada. The firm generates most of its reven


OTCPK:ARLZQ - Post by User

Comment by kuatoliveson May 04, 2016 5:40pm
67 Views
Post# 24842161

RE:Worried about Earnings-

RE:Worried about Earnings-
Well, revenue should be rather predictable, it's the expenses that are the unknown, but an unknown that is rather irrelevant in the medium term. If yosprala gets approved the burn rate will increase even further while new reps come online (another 90+) but the stock should begin to move northward. If yosprala gets delayed again I doubt any fibricor revenue will be enough to offset the cost of pushing it with a dedicated team so ... If that happens prepare for the worst, seriously. 
 
Again, this is the risk Harris signed us up for and if could I go back in time I would have sold upon the announcement but live and learn. I really wouldn't worry too much about earnings though; good or bad it's all about yosprala approval at this point. No rosy earnings report in the world will make up for another yosprala delay and conversely the worst of reports will be quickly forgotten upon approval with the built in assumption revenue will soon explode so ... hang tight if you think approval is coming. 
 
All of my tribute earnings have been wiped out and I'm sitting exactly where I was when I started buying TRX but have decided to stick around. Adams is 3 million in the hole on his trade so is personally motivated. I think a decline to 3.50 is easily possible but such a decline would be short lived after approval of yosprala and some double digit revenue growth. It's a bit of a casino play right now but I think the odds are in our favour to hold. If approval doesn't happen, I would think the ensuing devaluation of arlz would make it a tempting takeover target and get us back to zero upon a sale. Assuming approval, my timeline to see some real green is summer 2017.
 
Yosprala approval, though, if I understand the process correctly, could now come any day. Ain't gonna go through all this just to sell and see the stock soar. Would rather just lose my stake or see dead money for 2 more years. Could be wrong though; often am. 
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