Saudi Arabia isn't really increasing production!Mr Nasser said Saudi Arabia’s production capacity was 12.5m b/d with all but 500,000 b/d controlled by Saudi Aramco. He added that the latest stage of an expansion project at the Shaybah oilfield in the south-east would be finished in a couple of weeks, adding 250,000 b/d of production capacity and taking the field’s output to 1m b/d by July. This would help offset falling output at other, mature fields.
https://next.ft.com/content/55265e34-168a-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e The reality is, the Saudi's mature fields are declining just like everyone else. So this big field they're upgrading is really much to do about nothing.
Balance is coming soon.
All IMO.