Crude inventory draw down projectionSince the begining of this year, the inventory has been building up, but at a much slower rate comparing to same period in 2015. (see EIA crude inventory table below)
The inventory building rate month to month has been roughly smaller for Jan (11.5 million less than 2015) Feb (14 million less), March (11 million less), April (15 million less). This trend is likely to continue given the strong demand and continued decrease in non-OPEC production. If so, the inventory draw down in May 2015 (4.3 million) will turn into a 15 million draw down this year. June 25 million draw down at least, July 15.5 million, and August 17 million....Of course there are quite a few assumptions here and things could change (econmic environment etc.). I expect to see large crude draw downs in the EIA reports to come throughout summer perhaps all the way through the year.
Let me know your thoughts.
| Month | Monthly Average Crude Inventory | change from previous month |
| 2014_10 | 373971.40 | |
| 2014_11 | 380476.75 | 6505.35 |
| 2014_12 | 383348.75 | 2872.00 |
| 2015_1 | 397563.00 | 14214.25 |
| 2015_2 | 430504.25 | 32941.25 |
| 2015_3 | 461379.00 | 30874.75 |
| 2015_4 | 486498.50 | 25119.50 |
| 2015_5 | 482162.40 | -4336.10 |
| 2015_6 | 466725.50 | -15436.90 |
| 2015_7 | 461204.40 | -5521.10 |
| 2015_8 | 453998.75 | -7205.65 |
| 2015_9 | 456446.25 | 2447.50 |
| 2015_10 | 473783.20 | 17336.95 |
| 2015_11 | 487997.75 | 14214.55 |
| 2015_12 | 487175.50 | -822.25 |
| 2016_1 | 489810.20 | 2634.70 |
| 2016_2 | 507912.75 | 18102.55 |
| 2016_3 | 528102.00 | 20189.25 |
| 2016_4 | 537808.60 | 9706.60 |