RE:Thank you PunjabiAbout 8.1 million SGY shares are shorted. SGY was not at risk because company sold assets in time & at a very good price & paid off the debt. Best move by the company. They made a mistake in delaying cutting dividend. Their revolving line of credit is up for a review & set expire by the end of the month. If not renewed they still get one year. Hopefully it would be renewed without any decline.
SGY did not have a major short position. I don’t think 8 million is too many shares when the stock has very good volume. The good thing about SGY is that it has a small float. At this time the issue is lack of interest in the stock & HFT are milking it for small spreads.
Short position is published every 15 days & there is always about 3 days lag / delay in reporting. We might get the latest position by Thursday.
There are lot of factors that can affect the oil prices. Fires, low rig count, issues in Nigeria, Libya & othe r places are some of them. These are also some of the reasons that the oil prices have already popped hard in a short time despite big glut & unwillingness among OPEC members to freeze production. Last OPEC meeting in May was failure because of Saudi & Iranian dispute to freeze production. The next OPEC meeting is in June. Still Glut is the main hang over the oil prices & this glut has to be absorbed.
Mostly of big consumers of oil like airlines have not yet hedged. Once they see that the reversal is taking place they will start hedging which will result in spike in future contacts.
Personally I think that Oil has bottomed. How fast & how high oil will climb in the next two quarter is hard to call. I think no one can do that accurately. It is expected that oil demand is going to spike over million barrels per day in the second half of the year. There was a guy on BNN this morning saying that there has been no demand increase since one year. According to him Oil prices were getting ahead of themselves & they are not going anywhere. I do not buy his argument. They was also another female. She said that the rally in metals & energy will not last. I do not share here views too. The point is that there are still lot of people out there that do not believe in the reversal & are in denial. Which is good because lot more buying interest is still not invested in the sector.
There are so many moving parts to oil prices. No one can accurately call oil prices in short term. I personally believe that lot of money can be made in oil sector when the reversal takes place.
During the oil decline I was on the sidelines for a very long time and waited patiently for the rebound to take advantage of collapse in oil prices. For a few months I am mostly invested. Oil is not going to stay at the present prices for ever. My major issue is that I have formed a trader mentally to survive in volatile markets & the cost of selling a position is so cheap it costs me only $5.00 to dump a stock. I have a tendency of selling too early to protect the profit but leaving huge amounts on the table. When you have a reversal taking place. It is a horrible approach. One should stay put. Buy & hold. I have not done that in long time.
Short Positions for SGY
| T : SGY | 2016-04-30 | 8,138,851 | -595,078 | 221,046,510 | 3.68 |
| T : SGY | 2016-04-15 | 8,733,929 | -256,139 | 221,046,510 | 3.95 |
| T : SGY | 2016-03-31 | 8,990,068 | 427,790 | 221,046,510 | 4.07 |
| T : SGY | 2016-03-15 | 8,562,278 | -151,259 | 221,046,510 | 3.87 |
| T : SGY | 2016-02-29 | 8,713,537 | 577,104 | 221,046,510 | 3.94 |
| T : SGY | 2016-02-15 | 8,136,433 | 1,272,515 | 221,032,888 | 3.68 |
| T : SGY | 2016-01-31 | 6,863,918 | -708,207 | 221,032,888 | 3.11 |
| T : SGY | 2016-01-15 | 7,572,125 | -134,279 | 221,002,492 | 3.43 |
| T : SGY | 2015-12-31 | 7,706,404 | -848,372 | 221,002,492 | 3.49 |
| T : SGY | 2015-12-15 | 8,554,776 | -2,340,353 | 221,002,492 | 3.87 |
| T : SGY | 2015-11-30 | 10,895,129 | -4,424,380 | 221,002,492 | 4.93 |
| T : SGY | 2015-11-15 | 15,319,509 | 1,229,312 | 220,851,020 | 6.94 |
| T : SGY | 2015-10-31 | 14,090,197 | 598,639 | 220,851,020 | 6.38 |
| T : SGY | 2015-10-15 | 13,491,558 | -1,161,950 | 221,240,817 | 6.10 |
| T : SGY | 2015-09-30 | 14,653,508 | 1,095,674 | 221,240,817 | 6.62 |
| T : SGY | 2015-09-15 | 13,557,834 | -481,049 | 221,217,068 | 6.13 |
| T : SGY | 2015-08-31 | 14,038,883 | -952,529 | 221,217,068 | 6.35 |
| T : SGY | 2015-08-15 | 14,991,412 | 530,342 | 221,147,248 | 6.78 |
| T : SGY | 2015-07-31 | 14,461,070 | 3,176,857 | 221,147,248 | 6.54 |
| T : SGY | 2015-07-15 | 11,284,213 | 1,078,581 | 221,062,094 | 5.10 |
| T : SGY | 2015-06-30 | 10,205,632 | 3,620,896 | 221,062,094 | 4.62 |
| T : SGY | 2015-06-15 | 6,584,736 | 71,178 | 221,062,094 | 2.98 |