From HUB on the iii board
From HUB on International Interactive Investor which is a UK stock board for any that have never heard of it. It is quite a good board and at least one poster from this board (Monkey_Spank) posts to it (I'm assuming it is the same person). Anyway, MS was stating that the Q1 report was dissapointing from a production perspective and HUB provided this commentary:
Monkey-spank is correct. But he's looking at the wrong numbers. Ithaca management have maintained the 16kbopd forecast for stella 'initial' first oil rates. This hasn't changed. And does not look like changing in September. They remain on track.
However, what has changed is the demise of Athena and a number of other smaller producing wells within the companies folio. Production has dropped by around 30% over the last 8 months. 12.5k to 9k as of today. These fields will continue to fall gradually, some faster than others.
Ithaca have not given a clear guidance on 2016 production estimates as they cannot be sure of Stella start up. So they have settled on a 9kbopd figure as being achievable and I believe this includes a small amount of stella production assuming a worse case scenario and a start up in Nov period or Q4 instead of Q3.
So what does that conclude? Well, it suggests that the current producing folio is likely to drop by around 30% again over the 12 month period.
I would expect Ithaca to issue production guidance in Jan 2017 of around 16kbopd to 20kbopd.
Unfortunately it is all downhill from here unless they acquire more producing assets like Anglia etc or invest in bringing some additional production through existing hubs via development drilling - which unfortunately costs money and increases capex.
Ithaca have outlined that they do not anticipate capex to exceed $20million next year which hints that they will just focus on delivering the 16k to 20k production and banking around $180million in profits which they will then use to pay off a lump of the debt which $330million is due in Sept 2018 I believe. That repayment sum assumes oil at $55pb range in 2017.
Malcy might sing the praises of ithaca and there are many positives, but as with many of the companies he follows, he rarely highlights the dangers ahead. It's all very well being positive, but the truth is Ithaca are far from being out of the woods.
If POO does remain near $55pb for duration of 2017 and 2018, then the company will just about make the Sept debt payment with very little cash balance left after that. $300million in senior notes is then needed the following year (2019) and they'll be pushed to pay that off assuming Stella and production declines as expected.
Stella is a great field but at 30kbopd+ , they drain pretty quickly and often need capex thrown at them to maintain levels when the field plateau's (like Athena as an example).
Investors need to be aware that unless POO returns to high $60's and stays there for a while... the majority of oil businesses with debt will in effect drain their fields and pay down debt but leave zero left after all is done. There will not be any periods where they produce nice free flowing cash profits.
With US shale likely to come back at $55pb to $60pb, the new reality is that Oil may never see $70pb again.
The real question now is will it ever see $60pb again?
HUB