Valuation calc...I made a post on the Avino forum regarding possible valuations based on First majestics takeover of Silvercrest mines.
The calculated metric value from that deal is as follows (assuming I have it right):
| METRICS TO USE | | | |
| | | | | |
| Price/SEO prduction multiplier: | 28,1 |
| Price/Reserves (Ag) | | | 8,73 |
| Price/(M&I+Reserves) Ag: | | 4,23 |
| Price/(M&I+Reserves) SEO: | | 2,85 |
| Price/All resources | | | 2,04 |
Then I used those metrics in order to create a "dirty" intrinsic value formula and apply it to a few companies that are also, at least for the most part, located in mexico...
To note: * Some companies do NOT calculate Silver EQ ounces (SEO), so companies with a decent portion of gold for example are unfairly punished compared to the more purer plays. * Future production growth is not taken into account. * AISC is NOT taken into account. (I might try to make a valuation metric that incorporates this later). * So far I have used current market cap (not accounting for recent placements or future warrant/option dillution). ... Anyway I stared playing around with some companies and this is how far I have gotten ATM: | Company | Mkt Cap | SEO Prod | Reserves (Ag) | M&I+Res(Ag) | M&I(SEO) | ALL (SEO) | MEAN | UP-/DOWNSIDE |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Avino: | 56,9 | 3 | | 13,6 | 27,5 | 54,26 | 82,72 | 45,4 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Great P: | 231,3 | 4,16 | | | 53,86 | | 135,20 | -41,5 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Silver St: | 1161 | 25,4 | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| First M: | 1740 | 24 | 100,5 | 215,7 | 291,7 | 562,96 | 888,79 | -48,9 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Pan Am: | 2220 | 39 | 280,1 | 1001,1 | | | 2591,94 | 16,8 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Americas S: | 86 | 5,3 | 31,1 | 81,2 | | | 254,64 | 196,1 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Fortuna: | 777 | 12 | 35,9 | 43,2 | | | 277,78 | -64,2 | % |
Input and comments are welcome!