US crude breaks above $50ATH hangingstone breaks even at $40 to $45. When the oil prices recover enough ATH may start hedding some of their production. In the second half 2016 demand will increase. With the present loss of 4m boe it will be eating into the glut. The Canadian production of 1.3 m will come back in 30 days but not clear about 2.7m from Libya & Nigeria.
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/25/oil-prices-edge-towards-50-after-us-crude-stocks-slump.html <p>Your oil playbook at $50: 4 names to buy</p> <p>The &quot;Fast Money&quot; traders give you an oil playbook if oil hits $50.</p>
U.S. crude and Brent oil futures climbed above $50 a barrel on Thursday for the first time in nearly seven months as a global supply glut that plagued the market for nearly two years showed signs of easing.
Oil prices have rallied in recent weeks as a string of outages, due in part to wildfires in Canada and unrest in Nigeria and Libya, knocked out nearly 4 million barrels per day of production.
Above $50 a barrel, oil was seen by many market players as breaching a psychological barrier that could lead producers, particularly among U.S. shale companies, to revive operations scrapped in recent years.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil was up 60 cents at $50.34 a barrel at 7:49 a.m. ET (1149 GMT), after a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week indicated buyers are starting to mop up spare supply.
U.S. crude futures were up 52 cents at $50.08 a barrel, the highest since mid-October.
"Certainly ($50) is a psychological barrier. There is a momentum, people will try and push it up over that," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at Sydney's CMC Markets.
A source at oil producer Chevron said on Thursday its activities in Nigeria had been "grounded" by a militant attack, worsening a situation that had already restricted the supply of hundreds of thousands of barrels.
A meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 2 in Vienna to discuss the oil market added further support.
However, the recent rise in oil prices and friction between key members Saudi Arabia and Iran mean a coordinated effort to intervene to support prices is slim.
"A (production) freeze remains a tail risk, but a very small one. The bigger risk is that following the meeting Saudi will increase production to meet rising summer domestic demand, to preserve market share in its oil wars with Iran and Iraq," David Hufton, head of PVM Oil brokers, said.
"These are all compelling reasons to expect Saudi production to rise over the summer months."