When?The likely timing of Delek's acquisition of Ithaca is interesting.
There is a price at which Ithaca's board would be supportive and the institutions would not resist, probably around $3, probably already provisionally agreed with Ithaca.
If c£3 is the provisionally agreed price then Delek will not want to move too quickly because:
1. If FPF-1 has not moved from Gdansk why pay the agreed price when the current price is so much lower and the operational risk to Stella first oil has not been reduced - the operational risk reduces in steps from departure, to arrival, to securing, to trial commissioning throughput and then to fully operational.
2. Whilst Ithaca is clearly a steal for Delek at c$3, Delec would inevitably attract some uninformed shareholder/stakeholder criticism if they bid c$3 when the current price is only a little over $1.
Delek will want to move as close to first oil as possible before finalising the agreement without taking the risk of having to pay over the proposed c$3. My thinking is that Delek won't want the price to have risen above $2 before they bid. I don't think that a c$2 bid trigger level will get us much further than FPF-1 being towed to the North Sea and then safely secured at Stella - probably about 2 months before first oil, around mid to late July.
Doug