RE:RE:My TakeI dont don't think this math is correct. Guidance for 2016 indicates 610 - 640 Million EBITDA, with a
Debt / EBITDA of 5.5. Your 18 year payback is way off and also assumes zero growth. I wouldn't forecast zero growth under any circumstance given the pending and recent product launches.
from the Q1 NR press release:
Guidance for 2016(2) For fiscal 2016, Concordia reaffirms guidance, on a constant currency basis(2) , as follows: -- Revenues of $1,020 million to $1,060 million. Greater than 60 per cent of revenues to be generated outside the United States. -- Adjusted EBITDA1 of $610 million to $640 million. -- Adjusted net income1 of $330 million to $355 million; adjusted EPS1,3 of $6.29 to $6.77. -- Year-end Net Debt/EBITDA1 of approximately 5.5x. bull_man wrote: let's do a very simple calculation, excluding PV calcs and any synergies; so if we accept CDN$55 (US$43)....and that's if an offer is even made, they would pay US$2.2 billion for CXR, plus inherit US$3.3 billion of debt; total cost, US$5.5 billion to the purchaser; CXR is currently generating about US$300 million free cash flow per annum, therefore an "18-year payback", not taking into account interest on debt, which is pretty high, and assuming no further growth and no negative impact from brexit and the november U.S. election results i.e. future pricing regulations; so ask yourself the question, if you were apollo, would you buy CXR??? so if they offer CDN$55, let's take it and run, and run fast.....very fast.