RE:RE:Headless Chickens and the Voice of ReasonKensho, the Stella delays were Petrofac, most investors realize there was little Ithaca management could do about it. If you hire a contractor to fix your roof and it still leaks after is it your fault? Or the contractor?
Management is actually highly regarded especially for getting a project of Stella's size built in one of the worst bear markets in oil in history and not in fact going bankrupt. Best in class hedging program too. Great stewardship throughout this time and the rewards are just ahead. Oil prices have recovered a little but a quarter of the debt has already been paid off, all without the benefit of Stella production.
I wouldn't dismiss aggressive price targets. Take a look at First Majestic (T.FR). Pounded down to $3.50 along with all precious metal stocks. Slight improvement in metal prices and the stock has gone from $3.50 in January to $16 today ( 5 months). If you made that call in January you would have been dismissed as a lunatic.
The big payout is still ahead. Stella is a massive production hub and has had five production wells drilled that have all significantly exceeded expectaions.
Oh and the delay in Stella to date may pay off big time. If they delivered last fall their initial production would have been selling at less than $30 a bbl in January
So the market has a fair value of $1.20 currently yet only a month ago fair value was $0.75. Was the market wrong then? Or now? What has changed? The stock has moved 50% in a month. Have oil prices moved that much? Everyone has a perception of value. Elena could be right, Doug could be right or you could be right Kensho. So we all make educated guesses based on our set of assumptions.
If Ithaca management was indeed in the penalty box, the stock would still be languishing at $0.50 until actual sailaway. But the stock has instead grinded higher as sailaway approaches.
I don't have a set target here but I believe this stock still has a long way to run.