quakes99 wrote: Ummmm. Each individual investor needs to do their due diligence based on factual information contained in NI 43-101 Technical Reports and other regulator-compliant documents (Financial Statements, MD&A's, Management Circulars) as filed on SEDAR, and then depending on their risk tolerance they choose whether or not to make an investment. That's not speculation, per se. Uranium miners and thousands of other commodity miners in the world have published Feasibility Studies that provide complete details coming from independent mining consultants... so in terms of miners, there is solid publicly-available data on which to make a value judgement vs the current share price and an investor's risk tolerance.
For Explorers it is a different story... as depending on where they are in the life cycle of a project, they may have no NI 43-101 reports at all, or like NexGen just a Resource Estimate, or like Fission and Denison a Preliminary Economic Assessment filed on SEDAR on which to make an investment decision. The degree of speculation depends on how many studies have been done and what those results show... which is defined as the level of RISK. PEA's include a Risk Analysis to inform investors of issues that may impede development or lower the quality of the deposit or degrade its economics. NXE does not yet have an independent Risk Analysis for the project heading towards development, so none of the issues around mine plans and water ingress have yet been studied.
So, for anyone to post statements on here suggesting that they already know the risks associated with a mine yet-to-be-designed for Arrow is... well... you choose the word. To say that they are a professional and are delivering a professional opinion based on no available data is highly suspect and, in terms of due diligence, should be discarded as hearsay from an anonymous and unverifiable source.
As I say, caveat emptor.
Thanks for the chat... and good luck with your investments!
Malcolm2001 wrote: Quite correct quakes...the same for every single Uranium miner in the region and the same for every mined commodity in the world. But if you knew all this data then it would not be a speculative play would it? Who knew back in the day when I first bought Apple that it would develop itunes, ipod, ipad. iphone. I certainly did not. All I had was a gut feel that this company was doing something different from the rest and it did. Did you know last Friday that Microsoft was going to buy out LinkedIn? I woke up on Monday morning to some really great news that my shares had gone up 50%....boy do I wish I had bought more. That is 20-20 hindsight. Even if you had all the data that you say is absent nobody REALLY knows how much Uranium is there until it is mined. No geologist, no engineer - no one knows. You don't know what you don't know. So you make calculated guesses based on what you DO know. For some time I felt LinkedIn was a takeover target....did I know...well of course not. I certainly did not know it was on the radar of Microsoft...that came as a complete surprise. A nice one though. Had I known last Friday for sure I would have upped my stake. But the art of investing is knowing when and how much to put down when you do NOT have all the information. It is not easy. What you are advocating is betting on certainty...that is not a bet.
Do I know with 100% certainty that NexGen has found a financially viable Uranium deposit....Nope. I certainly had less information last December when I bought it than I do now.
So far results have proved me correct. My prediction based on the radioactivity of these drill holes is that it will double the current estimate. We will know in due course.
Only time will tell if I am right or wrong. But if you wait until you have all the information you will never invest a dime and you will never make a dime either.
I recall with great humour the people who called me stupid for investing in Apple. Some of them are still around...they don't say that any more. The few thousand I invested back then is worth more than their entire net worth. Stupid is as stupid does as Forrest Gump would say.
So sitting back waiting for every bit of data will reduce your risk but it will also reduce your potential gains to abnout zero.
In any case one NEVER puts all ones eggs in the same basket. As I have said here many times diversification across the Uranium sector is better than banking it all on NexGen. So while you may refer to it as a hugfest...not sure I have ever been to one of those...it really is a question of how many of your eggs you put in the several egg baskets. I like FCU aswell and have shares in it but if I was forced to choose one miner in this space it would be NexGen...but no-one is forcing me to make that choice....that is why aI have a piece of all of them.
Malcolm