RE:RE:GopatsIt's true - this conversation is running in circles - the institutional behaviour has been analyzed many times over, and still, GoPats is correct in that it has no impact on why someone should own this stock. Analyzing volume, accumulation vs distribution and smart vs dumb money is one thing, but that only works with a large sample size over large periods of time, and with a highly liquid and highly traded company. Otherwise, it's gotta be looked at on a case by case basis, which we've done several times, and are all still here.
In saying that, this is a learning experience for everyone involved. And we rely on hindsight a lot. We (and the company) are realizing, slowly, that guidance, no matter how sure they are of it, is nothing more than a hopeful guess. They are learning that again right now.
The REALITY is, and I'm gradually accepting this, is that internally, they move on a day to day basis. They may have medium term goals, but those deadlines are not pressuring the due diligence process. I have also been assured that every single day there is progress, every day. But they don't look for the end because it ends when it ends. Throw deadlines, guidelines, etc out the window.
Focus on the fact progression is being made.
Believe it at your own discretion.
When analyzing Vertex, imo, their credit activity is much more important than their investment activity.
Obviously, banking vs investment activity in insanely regulated and many procedures are in place to ensure information is not being shared between groups.
The credit department can go freely to the project manager, and they have been from Day1 of the first dollar loaned to Intermap.
The equity department is manipulating the size of the investment based off the same information we have. So that's why we have the divergence.... 5 million shares sold while they loaned 5 million new debt and dropped all rates and penalties on existing debt. The department I personally focus on is the Banking/credit side.
But that's just me.
LookUp wrote: Completely agree with Gopats and Bashnomore. I am one of the retail investors that took a very large position last year knowing that it was a high risk gamble. Am rather tired of the folks that were looking for a big gain, but are nervous nellies or impatient. Just sell and buy a more suitable stock for your personalities.