Has Prior BTE Earnings Releases Boosted the SP?We have read the arguement that the next BTE earning relase will be a catalyst to propel the sp to $10 or beyond but is this likely to be true? If not wheat will be the real catalyst?
Below is a chart over the last 1 year of BTE plus the front month cost of WTI. Whats important on this chart is the "pair ratio" on the bottom which is graph showing the end of day SP of BTE divided by the front month WTI daily closing price.
It BTE and WTI moved in lock step tick for tick then this graph would be flat (depends on the math) but if either moves faster then the other then you will see swings up or lower. Notice at the end of last summer the pair ratio is dropping fast meaning the BTE sp is dropping alot faster then WTI. Then the chart is flat until DEC then it drops again followed by a flat section small uptick then flat again.
The vertical red lines represent the next trading day after an earnings release. If those releases were a dominant factor in moving the BTE sp you would expect a spike up or down in the pair ratio chart at the bottom. In fact that has not been the case rathar after earnings the ratio of BTE versus WTI effectively didn't seem to change whateversoever relationship it had had with WTI. After the March release the overprefermance of BTE relative to WTI went from accelarating to flat. The may release BTE continues it's weakness trean relative to WTI that had begun starting at the end of april.
This graph proves like another one I recently posted that recent BTE earnings releases did not meaningfully affect the relationship between BTE and WTI in eaither direction. In fact right after the March earnings the overpreformance of BTE stopped and after the May rlease the underpreformance of BTE continues at about the same rate. BTE moves with oil sometime at different rates but the earnings release will likely follow the same trend relative to WTI regardless of future earnings as it has in the past.
There are so many misrepresentations by a specific person on this board I have only taken the time to correct some of them. Be careful what you believe and question everything.