RE:RE:Points - i.e. stating the obviousGek
Valuing an oiler is never easy as earnings, earnings growth, assets, debt, project risk etc all have to be considered - I state the obvious. However:
1. Ithaca's output estimates post GSA are very conservative indeed.
2. The oil price will be high by mid 2017, probably well over $100 pb IMO.
3. We know Ithaca's forward production costs.
4. We know Ithaca's debt will be rapidly disappearing by mid 2017 if all goes to plan.
5. Other nearby fields will be drilled for FPF-1 next year and beyond in addition to possible further acquisitions.
6. You do the maths, just GSA production added to existing fields, with projected output growth and falling debt will justify an earnings ratio approaching 10x. According to my calculator that should get us close to $10 - and the story would be far from over at that point.
7. I agree that an acquistion is likely sooner rather than later and it will probably be Delek.
Doug