RE:RE:Probably one of the most boring stocks I own.....downsideup wrote: just see how much money our government can throw away, $75 million ? well, at least I can get some of my tax back, yeah 2 cents maybe, but still greater than 0. I don't like negative returns, who does. someone realized its value these days.
the value is finally being seen, yes. While waiting we made $3.36 in dividends and bought in lower than todays price. However, we did not buy the share price or a "stock" we bought the business.
The market is simply catching up. $30 is not unreasonable at all and would still only be in the low 200MM marketcap and nil debt.
Using their own projections based on the MD&A for Q2 they anticipate 1.59-1.89 EPS. Using this range we can see clearly this was undervalued.
at todays share price of $22.66:
22.66/1.59 (low range EPS) = 14.25 PE (still on sale)
$22.66/1.89 (high end EPS) = 11.99 PE. (wow....how much more of a sale do you want???)
Clearly at todays price it is still "undevalued" simply using a PE calc.
Using a $25 share price:
$25/1.59 = 15.72 PE
$25/1.89 = 13.22 PE.
EVEN at that share price, still undervalued and STILL a very reasonable PE.
Account for backlog and future growth etc. say even a $30 share price
$30/1.59= 18.86 PE
$30/1.89= 15.87 PE.
Not bad considering the market historically has traded between 15-25 P/E multiple. Not bad again considering Calian has typically traded lower than 14 P/E as it was viewed with limited growth. With growth ahead it makes sense a higher P/E is warranted. The market is telling us that now.
Again, even at $30 the marketcap (more important than share price) is low 200MM.
Before anyone jumps in about how P/E is not relevant....it doesn't matter to me. Do what you like I could care less. I've been here a long time through some major bumps and turbulence and still here so maybe the evidence says I do some things right...on my own,...without an "expert" who wants to keep me scared and feeling stupid so he/she can buy their Ferrari with my fees then drive around with a plate that says "1daypay"...sorry, I have a hard time supporting my own family let alone my family and a money manager, a bank, mutual fund, or whatever vehicle that has fees attached without performance/accountability.
P/E is definitely a big part of my value investing foundation but of course not the only one. But it is absolutely part of my high level screening process.
The best thing anyone who wants to invest in the markets can do is learn accounting and how to read financial statements. It acts as a check against what an "expert" might say. It is cheap and easy to do yet people would rather trip over their own feet and believe what they "hear" not what they can "see". Very strange. Have fun.
THE best thing I ever did for my portfolios is to turn off BNN and similar.