RE:RE:RE:Interesting ReadGood article you Waskle. I think both of these articles have a couple of similar points. The first is that the PoO is trending up and the only meaningful discussion relates to the timeline. The second is that the trend will not be a straight line and we will see significant volatility over oil's ascent. Exactly how we get to a more sustainable oil price is anyone's guess, but we will get there soon enough.
But for me, the most interesting thing in the oil news these days, is what is NOT in the news, and that, is any talk of OPEC and the Saudis. How is it that for the past 20 months, ALL talk and news related to the low price of oil always included the impact of OPEC and the Sauds. And now you are hard pressed to find any news about these oil producers even though the Saudi's are on record stating that they eventually need and by association, the rest of the world needs, $70 Brent. One has to wonder exactly what is happening behind the scenes in OPEC and specifically the Sauds given that we are quickly coming to two years of full out production and by association low priced oil. The biggest piece of news that we were left with before OPEC and the Sauds fell out of the news cycle was that most OPEC members were desperate for higher prices (and by desperate I mean DESPERATE!!!) and that the Sauds wanted to sell a part of ARAMCO for trillions of dollars.
My point here is that all of our talk on the future price of oil is missing the impact of OPEC going forward. The Sauds have a tremendous cache of USD by which they have been able to weather the storm, but after 2 years, even the Sauds will be hurting and coming to the end of their rope and will not be able to go another year at these levels. But even more important, the Sauds want to sell a small piece of ARAMCO, and they want to do this soon, but I guarantee you that they do not want to sell at $45 Brent. Nope, they will want a thriving oil and gas market and that only gets done by cutting back production and forcing the price to rise to the $70 level. I will not be surprised if this half of 2016 sees the Saudi’s jump back into the role of the market maker. And if that happens then the PoO will move very quickly.