RE:trucking or rail
People were posting about the possibility of trucking 2k bopd as though that actually mattered.
I was just saying that it's a red herring, at best. I wonder why the companies are even talking
about it. Doing it, fine, but talking about it is a waste of time,.
As for the pipeline, I suppose that ten years from now they'll have one, and the Somalis and the
other bandit tribes of Northern Kenya will blow it up every other week just for kicks. Uganda and
Total knew that, which is why they opted to spend far more to build their own pipeline, which
avoids Kenya.
The market is valuing AOI's oil at well under US$1 per barrel of 2C. If AOI can get that extra
$75m carry from Maersk, then the valuation goes most of the way to zero. Amazing. The market
seems to have very little faith in pipeline, or in the Kenyan government, and it sure doesn't
give a damn about trucking. It's hard to imagine that a billion barrels of oil might be stranded,
but the market thinks there's a very good chance of that.
So don't complain about me. Complain about the market. And good luck with that.
As for me, I will continue to hope that Kenya comes to its senses and agrees to a pipeline
to Mombasa. That would at least have a chance. Right now, I'll bet that AOI/Tullow/Maersk
wish they could build a pipeline west to Uganda. Cheaper than going to Lamu, and 100 times
safer.