RE:fair value of LTS shares IS NOT 3 cents Below I have put together a lengthy post with some figures to hopefully assist fellow "old timer" long shareholders understand just where we stand? I hope my figures are correct, I welcome your thoughts? kmapp
If this re-capitalization proposal gets approved the question is what will the new shares open at? What market cap will the market figure the new LTS is worth?
-Using Fridays close of 0.14 on a 100,000 shares that is worth $14,000. So post re-cap the new shares would need to open at $12.32 just to be at the same value as pre re-cap.
-Now pre 100,000 shares consolidate 1 for 88 = 1,136.3636 post shares. So today's value would need to be $14,000 divide by 1,136.3636 = $12.32 post.
-This puts a post market cap on LTS at 100M shares X $12.32 = $1.232 Billion but then include the $400M new debt giving us a EV of $1.632B?
-Post re-cap at $12.32/share is around today's pre re-cap EV which is 198.645M shares (June 30 Q2 report) X $0.14 = $27.8103M market cap + debt $1.574576B (June 30 Q2 report) = today's EV $1.6023863B.
-So it seems to me at $0.14/share today this would value LTS at almost the same EV post re-cap, the question is would the new shares open at $12.32?
-As per Chantal's comments below opening at $10 or over would be unlikely and I tend to agree as that would put the series 1 warrants ($10.25 and $11.77) into the money already and the series 2 warrants ($12.88 and $14.96) almost in the money which I doubt would happen until oil eventually recovers to at least $60 or more? Don't know if LTS will open at $4.40 = $0.05 or $8.80 = $0.10 or $12.32 = $0.14, what will it be, what do others calculate it to be? Thoughts? Thanks, hope this is somewhat correct and helps? kmapp
-Just to compare the different share values today with what they need to be post re-cap I have listed below what LTS would need to open at to be of equivalent pre re-cap. The question is what will the market value the new LTS at, what are our prospects at recovering some of our money for those of us who paid much higher share prices? Looks like a very long dusty road ahead to me?
Today's Market Cap 198.645M shares X $0.14 = $27.8103M + debt $1.574576B = Today's EV $1.6023863B.
Post re-capitalization calculations below:
Pre$ = Post$
$0.01 = $0.88 100M shares X $0.88 = 88M + 400M debt = Post EV 488M
$0.02 = $1.76 100M shares X $1.76 = 176M + 400M debt = Post EV 576M
$0.03 = $2.64 100M shares X $2.64 = 264M + 400M debt = Post EV 664M
$0.04 = $3.52 100M shares X $3.52 = 352M + 400M debt = Post EV 752M
$0.05 = $4.40 100M shares X $4.40 = 440M + 400M debt = Post EV 840M
$0.06 = $5.28 100M shares X $5.28 = 528M + 400M debt = Post EV 928M
$0.07 = $6.16 100M shares X $6.16 = 616M + 400M debt = Post EV 1.016B
$0.08 = $7.04 100M shares X $7.04 = 704M + 400M debt = Post EV 1.104B
$0.09 = $7.92 100M shares X $7.92 = 792M + 400M debt = Post EV 1.192B
$0.10 = $8.80 100M shares X $8.80 = 880M + 400M debt = Post EV 1.280B
$0.11 = $9.68 100M shares X $9.68 = 968M + 400M debt = Post EV 1.368B
$0.12 = $10.56 100M shares X $10.56 = 1.056B + 400M debt = Post EV 1.456B
"Unsecured Noteholders" series 1 warrants sliding scale ($10.25 and $11.77) into the money already
$0.13 = $11.44 100M shares X $11.44 = 1.114B + 400M debt = Post EV 1.514B
$0.14 = $12.32 100M shares X $12.32 = 1.232B + 400M debt = Post EV 1.632B
$0.15 = $13.20 100M shares X $13.20 = 1.320B + 400M debt = Post EV 1.720B
Shareholders series 2 warrants sliding scale ($12.88 and $14.96)
$0.16 = $14.08 100M shares X $14.08 = 1.408B + 400M debt = Post EV 1.808B
$0.17 = $14.96 100M shares X $14.96 = 1.496B + 400M debt = Post EV 1.896B
$0.18 = $15.84 100M shares X $15.84 = 1.584B + 400M debt = Post EV 1.984B
$0.19 = $16.72 100M shares X $16.72 = 1.672B + 400M debt = Post EV 2.072B
$0.20 = $17.60 100M shares X $17.60 = 1.760B + 400M debt = Post EV 2.160B
$0.21 = $18.48 100M shares X $18.48 = 1.848B + 400M debt = Post EV 2.248B
$0.22 = $19.36 100M shares X $19.36 = 1.936B + 400M debt = Post EV 2.336B
$0.23 = $20.24 100M shares X $20.24 = 2.024B + 400M debt = Post EV 2.424B
$0.24 = $21.12 100M shares X $21.12 = 2.112B + 400M debt = Post EV 2.512B
$0.25 = $22.00 100M shares X $22.00 = 2.200B + 400M debt = Post EV 2.600B
To get my money back I need over post $220/share without the warrants and at EV of 26 Billion as my pre average was approx $2.50/share. Of course this would be less if I then bought series 2 warrants that would be in the money above $15/share. I'll be quite surprised if LTS gets to $22 before the 5 year warrants expire and I doubt the market will ever give the new LTS a multiple of 10. This will never happen in my lifetime, sure lost big on this on, what a mistake. Please don't rub it in or gloat HR2 and gang! I know what a mistake I've made but always was expecting somebody to come along and take them over as I listened time and again as to how great of value the assets were and LTS wasn't going to give them away, ha! Obviously worth less than half what LTS said since this is what LTS is giving it away for. OUCH. Lost lots of sleep on this one, where's the whisky?
chantal2468 wrote:
its simple math...3 cents times approx 200m shares = $6M (which is 2.25% of equity)
multiply by 44.5 to get total equity of $294 M.
Next,add back $400M debt to get enterprise value of all the assets = $694M
THAT IS NOT the current market value of Lightstream assets at $40 WTI oil.
The current value of the assets is approx $900M ,which implies a share price of about 5 cents.
after consolidation (88 X 5 cents) = $4.40
So if LTS starts trading at $10.00 per share I would expect the share price to drop dramatically if oil price remains at $40.
I would consider buying at $3.00 per share post consolidation IF WRIGHT GETS FIRED.I would NOT buy at any price if he is running the company.Getting burned once by that guy is enough for me.