My take - Longs listen up- Don't believe that there's a natural hedge with GBP revenue to pay GBP debt. Revenue translation to USD will drop, which is part of the reason why they had to revise revenue down. Downward revision is not good for SP.
- Don't disregard the impairment loss and the -$11.18 EPS. Impairment means the assets no longer expect to generate as much future benefit as before. Looking at adjusted EPS only makes one feel better about the results but present value of future benefit is now down by $567 million.
- Don't always blame the shorts when share price drops. Price is determined by supply and demand. Having a lot of sellers could come from longs who are exiting their position and has nothing to do with short sellers. If the results aren't as bad, buyers would be stepping in but they aren't. Buyers aren't, there's low demand and high supply of shares
- "But the shares trade at 2-3x next years earnings!" - Don't forget about interest payments too! YTD interest expense is $120 million. As debt maturity dates range from 5-7 years, lets assume all debt will mature in 6 years. The company will need atleast ~$600 - 750 million to pay the principal and interest per year. So far they have made $270 million in debt repayment this year with a cash flow increase of $106 million YTD. It will be tight but do-able. Debt holders owner most of the company at the moment.
- I would probably hold but if it drops below $10, it's a sell as it would be a huge breakdown. REMEMBER TO SET YOUR STOP LOSS ORDERS. Possible catalyst is the strategic review and a better Q3. If you want to invest in this company wait a quarter or 2 before jumping back in. For now it's a traders dream. If you can stomach the volatility, stay on the side lines
- There will be another drop (smaller one) on monday, I predict 3-10% before a dead cat bounce happens on tuesday for 3-5%. Then it will trade sideways but with a more downward trend.
Disclaimer: I'm not long/short in Concordia currently nor have I been on the long/short side of this stock in the past.