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STUDENT TRANSPORTATION INC 5.25 PCT DEBS T.STB.DB.A



TSX:STB.DB.A - Post by User

Post by slimjim11on Aug 20, 2016 5:09am
481 Views
Post# 25160771

Melt-up

Melt-upBack in the dark days of January, when some people were posting on third that the end was nigh, I was pointing out the business is solid and the cash flows cover the dividends. That was at around $4.50 per share. Now, the market price has recovered to $7.17, the debts have been lengthened and interest rates lowered, and the dividend continues to be paid. The yield at current prices is 7.9%, and yet there are 3,459,011 shares short. With the stock near five-year highs, these positions are probably losing money. Some possible explanations: 1) the shares are hedged with convertible positions. Long the convert, short the stock, lock in the yield. 2) The shorts are boxed: go long the stock in a parallel account, rather than cover a money-losing short. When the momentum turns, sell off the long position, on down ticks if needed, and re-establish the net short. In the meantime, no net damage. 3) The shorts are neither hedged nor boxed, and are losing money. ach day the stock rises, the pain grows. At some capitulation point, buying panic sets in. If a reasonable yield is 4, and the current yield is close to 8%, the shares could easily double from here. All the longs have to do is: nothing. Don't offer shares for sale. Don't let the shorts exit their positions. And as their losses mount, so will their panic. A melt-up is the opposite of a melt-down.
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