RE:Risk/ Reward, looks good to me.Here is my minimum estimate:
Ante Creek + Waskahigan production of 7,090 boe/d, 48% oil and liquids x $30,000 = $215 mm.
Zero value for pipelines, etc. and Duvernay rights.
Gold Creek: including recently purchased lands and 1 drilled well = $25 mm.
Kaybob: 800 boe/d production, 88% gas = $15 mm.
Pine Creek: Peyto operated Wilrich gas plus other assets (Gilby and Big Muddy). Total = $5 mm.
Net Debt: -$105 mm.
Total: 215 + 25 + 15 + 5 - 105 = $155 : 150 mm shares = $1.03.
OK, let's deduct $10 mm. $145 : 150 = $0.97.
Even at $0.87 the potential reward for a 2 months wait is worth the risk.