RE:RE:Putin - deal to allow Iran's pre-sanction output objectiveKensho
Of course, but consider the following:
1. Whilst Iran may have brought its previous isolation upon itself, given the hardships created by the oil sanctions and extreme lack of domestic investment due to the sanctions, there was just no way that Iran was ever going to freeze production so soon after sanctions were lifted.
2. Iran is not a large OPEC player. What Iran does or does not do is within the roundings.
3. A reasonable approach would be to for Iran to agree to a freeze at a higher output level, somewhere between 4 and 4.5 Mb per day, it will probably take Iran a couple of years to reach 4.5Mb.
Also, do bear in mind that any OPEC freeze is a very short term arrangement. We are moving into an oil supply deficit now and we will stay there for years, by the end of next year Iran will be able to pump as much oil as it wishes.
Any OPEC action will have little or no impact upon the long term oil supply and demand equation, that is all but written in stone for the medium to long term now. Any OPEC action is simply about nudging the oil price into the $55 to $70 range a few months sooner than would otherwise be the case.
Doug