Old API Wind-down Ltd - Ordinary Shares ARLZQ

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Institutional buyer or Fund @ $5.50 US

[GoldenDilemma]

@kuat,

Let's see what happens post news. Basic technical analysis will give us the best indication of where/when we should exit.

Even in hindsite, if you look to what happened last year before Hillary and then the s h i t show that ensued, we did not manage to hold the $12 zone on good volume (POZN) and the chart was forming a bearish double top. That was indicative of shorts piling in and buying volume drying up which then in the following weeks showed our lows broadening and our highs not being as high.

I do imagine post news (if approved) that ARLZ will trend simply on the premise that there is not much reason to short or be against the story. Q3 and Q4 financials will likely show cash burn for sales force being hired and in the latter case the filing costs for Canada and Europe. In the meantime, if US sales force is on top of their biz, that would suggest that the meat and potatoes will not be actualized till at least end of 2017 (assuming approved internationally). Then going forward into 2018, we'd have Yosprala as an international drug and I presume in the meantime there will be some M&A on the horizon which will only further the potential. 

In any case, though, in near term, we simply have to monitor when momentum slows down or buying volume dries up or the trend reverses. That is a safe exit; especially from where you own it at!

I do see the long potential here and will likely rebuy or scale a small position but I have other financial ambitions at the moment and would rather be flexible to respond to the broader market. There were some companies in other sectors that performed incredibly well this year due to geopolitical or global isues and having access to more liquid cash to size positions accordingly to take on those scenarios is what I am more interested in at this point in my investing career.