RE:RE:I bough yesterday at $5.84I agree with some of your points but not others.
acess for all intents and purposes is sold for at least what devon got for theiur stake but could be more as they also have storage facility and loading facilities that I don't beleive are part of acess but don't quote me on that one.
with a 70 cent CND they can easily make money at 50 wti and lots of cash at 60 wti if CND stays in the general range.
q3 will be profitbale and q4 more will more profitable than q3, so things are slowly getting better, but that doesn't mean oil prices will stay in the current range, there are many factors driving the oil market these days but bottopm line ;
the saudies need higher oil prices so they can peddle their aramco share offering and it won't fly if oil prices are 35-45 range, they need higher prices and sinnce the saudies are driving opec produciton with some coming from iraq and iran, they will come to some form of agreement, be it freeze produciton or more importantly exports at cvertain levels.
yes MEG has risk with the debt but they have time to resolve these issues, with access sales and increased productions and cashflow.
if they upped thier produciton in q3 to 85,000 bpd the stock will pop iat least 0.50 to 1.00 from where it is trading befroe the q3 report.
if they show the market they can increase produciton at reasonable costs and lower operating costs even further, it will look real good on management.
make a lobng story short MEG is on teh MEND
but it won't go straight up unless they annoucne access sale and or corporate sale, which I dont' expect yet, cause they are waiting to see where oil prices are heading into h2-16 and future 2017 prices.
they might even increase their hedge book just to protec t increases in produciton.
I'm also not convinced the up trend is over, it might very well be but I still think the saudies want higher price and they will get higher prices.
good weekend every one