RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:MT needs to go Plain and simple....The difference here is it is unlikely to have a v shaped recovery. Its going to take a LONG time to get the debt to ebitda below 5 to get the big money back in and everything has go right. Keep in mind that there are alot of potential problems on the horizon that could send the ratio higher.
colt451 wrote: Well this is one of the first posts I've read of yours that I can actually agree with so I suppose we have some common ground lol.
Apart from funds like Ackman's or Point 72 yeah, the majority of funds cannot invest in a Co. like CXR due to their leverage or alternatively, because they are now a "small cap" and close to becoming a "micro-cap." The index selling is a cherry on the cake as it allows shorters to front run into the deletion and then buy back the shares the following week.
There is not really an exception for commodities, that is why you saw massive drops in the oil and copper sector with v shaped recoveries. Once the commodity prices rose and re-established investable guidelinese money flowed back in.
At this point I am simply underwater to the point that the risk/reward profile favours holding until the strategic review is complete. But if I was new money I would not buy, or if I was down 10-25% I would have sold today in all liklihood. That is probably another factor in driving the price down - no one is going to touch this until there is some certainity.
Craigbad wrote: You seem like a nice guy colt, and i appreciate that you actually put some math to your numbers although we differ in opinion. I would call this a long squeeze, not a bear raid. Once the debt to ebitda goes well beyond the danger zone alot of funds have to dump and most funds can't buy so they're essentially squeezed out. There are exception for commodities because of their nature. Add in the removal from 3 indices this Friday and the drop was actually quite predictable.
colt451 wrote: To be fair it makes less sense for the CEO to book an interview and then cancel it unless the Co. is going under then it makes perfect sense.
However, I cannot get past the fact that $283M in EBITDA was generated in Q1+ Q2 which after a 10% tax rate and $115M in interest = $140M in free cash flow.
Thompson either committed fraud or this is a massive bear raid IMO.
jsg335 wrote: I agree, but I have a terrible feeling some other bad news is coming. Initially I also felt someone was walking down the price, but this is starting to look like people in the know are bailing out. It really doesn't make sense why the CEO wouldn't want to reassure investors by doing some sort of press. It's looking really bad now.