RE:RE:RE:TheoryBurriedinCXR1, you ask " Would you initiate a short position at the $7 Canadian level"?
That's a hard question. And here is a very, very long answer - you have been warned.
Shorting here now at $7 is actually much easier than shorting at $91 a year ago. The whole Concordia world and health merger and acquisution sector has done complete "upside down".
A year ago the stock was going to the moon and Concordia could do no wrong. They had acquired Covis and were about to acquire AMCo. The acquisition engine was in full force.
Today, the stock is heading to zero fast and Concordina can't do any right. It's fatally wounded. It doesn't even know if it has enough money to move forward and there is absolutelyl no discussion of acquisitions, even small, teaser ones.
But, don't fool yourself, short selling is for expert traders and I don't think I am one yet but that's my goal. That's for sure. I still have a full time job that pays the bills and if trading can replace that, I can trade on the beach anywhere in the world. That's my vision of freedom55. I want to get there and I'm well on my way.... But I don't want to get in anyone's way either.
I don't think you can make money on the markets in the coming 10 years unless you have mastered short selling. It's not something you can ignore, it's something you have to understand and embrace.
But that's just an opinion based on increased volatility and price swings we are seeing across the big boards. I"ve been at this almost 20 years, I started really early. I still remember taking the bus and walking in to the main TD Investing branch downtown and being told it was $45 to place a trade and after my initial, very loud, "WOW that's a RIPOFF!" exclamation, which was funny since everyone there in suits turned around and smiled because they knew I was there with my paper-route money and I was serious! After asking about discounts which was horriying since the $45 WAS the "discount commission rate" , I said to myself ok, I'll open an account.
Then came the age requirement and they said, we "need your parents signature" (dad's in this case, because he was the boss). I knew I was stuck on the sidelines waiting to be 19 years. I knew my dad would never let me invest, he vetoed skydiving and I know he had a classic everyday joe view of the "stock market" having shown me some worthless mining stock paper certificates when we talked about it. He associated the stock market with losing hundreds of dollars (which is tens of thousands in today's money). I might still have these certificate in a box somewhere! I never even asked for his signature since I knew he would get mad at me for trying to open a "stock market account".
But, just like I was at the DMV at my 16th birthday for my driver's license (dad let me do that!), I was back the main TD Investing branch the day after my 19th birthday. I remember, that was my own secret birthday present and my first stock was 100% Microsoft. I would have bought more companies but the "crooks", in my view at the time, wanted $45 for each different companies even if I ordered them at the same time/order! You can see the thinking I had back then right... I'm sure I made a lot of professionals chucke hard back then because I wasn't shy!
For novices, I'd advocate being sidelines here, watching and learning. For those who are ready to add shorting to their self-investing still sets, I'd recommend CXR because this is the only stock I would short myself right now. This situation will happen again in a different sector, you might as well get familiar with what looks like a sure thing to zero. Baby steps. Use a few hundred shares to start.
If you took a bath here, don't ignore anything, especially your little inner voice that might be screaming at you right now. And please, do NOT go into denial trying to find messages you want to hear versus messages you NEED to hear.
I was caught in the .com disaster and now, I undertstand where the "trillions of shareholder money disappeared" to. It didn't evaporate! The dumb press makes it sounds as if goes away!
"Trillions of shareholder wealth WIPED OUT!" It's not WPED OUT! It's transferred to those with a short position!!! And yep, I lost everything there. That was my "big lesson" and a very expensive one that I bet would rival the top longs here. Took me years to regain any confidence as as watched stocks after stocks delist.
I have a relatively new understanding of short selling after examining what happened in the last big crash. That was in 2008. Did well on that one and I mastered buying when "blood was in the street". But you had to find good candidates so far from a perfect score for me there but lucrative. Although I did well in the post 2008 as a new contrarian investor, I didn't understand short selling until just recently.
You can't fight short selling, you have to adapt and include it in your own trading strategies to complete on a equal playing field with all these market professionals who dominate the markets.
The more I research short selling, the more I understand that "big money" short sellers have a key advantange and that's why it's almost preferred by hedge funds. They don't have to report it!
So, let's say I'm billionaire Cohen and his Point72 asset management, if I go long and have, I have to disclose large holdings. If I go short I don't ! What will I do? I went long in the spring and added just before Q2 and WHAM! Failed guidance? Do I dump and leave or dump and short? Here's a note, when you look at disclosure by these big guys, look at purchases and totals. If purchases are positive and totals are zero, what does that imply?
For many other hedge funds why create any waves by going long there when I can be undetected by other investors (which are all competitions at "big money" level).
Here, we're all small, we aren't competitors. I don't understand why people try to complete here instead of helping each other?
Your trades, even if they are in 5 or 6 dollar figures, makes no difference to how a high liquidity stock like this one would behave. Bashing and pumping makes no difference unless the bullboard is "owned" by the group to make it sounds as it "everyone" thinks the same as they seem to do on penny stocks.
I think many here playing bullboard manipulation are from the small cap world and there, it makes a big difference especially since small groups can in fact target to "control the float" and control the bullboard message to "feast" on novice readers and traders in their stock manipulation routines.
This is a different world. This is the big leagues and this site has as much impact as twitter and other investments discussion sites. Controlling mainstream media is more important for "big money" manipulation. Do these also try to control these message boards? I'm sure they do. It's part of "controlling the message" strategy.
Getting back to us little average people, with average lives, driving average cars etc would I take a short position at the $7 level? Maybe as purely a learning experience to start because there's only thing we know for SURE about this stock is that it's untrustable.
Look at the stock price in the past 12 months for proof! The leaks, the funny business with these numbered companies flying offshore like bandits, the massive write downs, the private equity angles, the jacking up of prices before the Cincen transactions etc etc.
If I shorted, this would be my very first short ever. And considering what I have seen in the last month, yes, I would short this stock now, post August. I might even watch this stock tomorrow and tuesday to see how much to jump in on the short side.
But don't put in more than you can lose and watch your stock daily. You can't "short and forget" and maybe call your discount brokerage to get assistance if you have never done it. You'll want to set a stop loss and a limit and that, I assure you, is worth the time to understand not just for here but to be ready to short other bad stocks when you find them Or to make money as the market crashes. Stocks that look fraudulent but have yet to be proven so are actually quite attractive as speculative short positions. But remember people, there is no sure thing.
From my perspective, I agree with all those who say "this is the best short on the TSE".
My bet is that it has everything going for it to hit zero (or near zero) in less than 6 months. I am ultra bearish on this.
But I would not place a large bet because there are some big manipulators working this stock and it's not the short sellers in my opinion. You're playing with fire either way in my view but short is better than long here. Sidelines is best for most who are in complete shock. You need a clear head. But if you are ready to profit on the way down, short is the position.
And please note, a zero (or near zero stock) does not mean the company assets will disappear, they will be 'transferred". Just as stareholder destruction, it's not destroyed, it's "transferred".
Welcome to the world's #1 market place. The financial markets its bazaars.
And for all of us who try to lead an honest life and contribute in a positive way to society and manking, I hope the crooks behind this and similar con jobs go to jail. Pure and simple. If you let the law breakers break the law, we have no civilization.