FullReversal wrote: Lumberfeverlong. Your point of view is very different than mine.
I gave management the "benefit of the doubt" until the stock price was unable to recover again. I too was falsly blaming the shorts for the attack and I wasn't the only one.
But while we focussed on the shorts, we ignored the attrocities made my management. The last quarter was the "wake up call" for me and others I know. From "firing on all cylinders" to a surprise of over half a billion dollar on a 2014 acquisition which is amortized over 25 years?? And only then guiding down!? Come on!
First of all Cinven already has Amco. It wasn't deeded yet. Look that up. It's with a legal transfer agent firmly on UK soil and not about to leave anytime soon.
Second, your point of view is that "
once that payment is made", my point of view is that "the payment
won't be made" because they had to defer 50% of it and are scrambling to get ultra expensive money screwing all the exiting debt holders in the process. Do you know what happens next normally? Debt holders either bail (like Goldman did finding bag holding lenders as "the street" is famous for) or sue because they don't want to see anyone get preference over their secured debt.
A more balanced view between these would be "what happens to Amco *if* the payment isn't made" but I can't be balanced here after the proven track record by the CEO and the CFO who left the diving plane with a parachute.
I don't know how many companies you have seen go under?
I have. Lots. Why? Because I am a contrarian investor. I look for depressed companies that are being beaten down and have 100% negativity around them. I normally do this around recourses but do other sectors like BBD when all the press was against them. But as contrarian, I have to cut my loses quick so that talent is well mastered.
CXR would normally be at a price I start buying here waiting for full capitulation. But instead, I'm finding myself trying to figure out:
1. How to short it here because I will never, ever go long here.
2. How to find other grossly overvalued, overhyped and overrated stocks just waiting to crash.
Ironically people have been pumping DOL here because if you look at that stock, it's almost where CXR was at the $100+ highs. On DOL the CFO has just dumped ALL his shares in mid September and the VP of Global Procurement has also dumped 2/3 of all his shares last month! The company uses "adjusted EBITDA" and is growth by expansion story and appears to be propping up is own shares via share buybacks.
Headlines are calling it "Canada top retail store!". And the analysts are all changing the rating to BUY as insiders are dumping millions! The new "contrarian" investor on the short side in me is very, very interested in DOL and I'm putting a short on it on my practice account (which I never use).
But I plan to learn and use short selling in my investment strategy going forward and I have to thank all the professional short sellers here for the free education.
Now you answer my question:
Are you paid to be here or are you a legit real shareholder underwater and in complete denial? If you are a legit shareholder, how many shares are you long?
Lumberfeverlong wrote: Fullreversal, still waiting for a reply to my question below....
Lumberfeverlong wrote: I understand the difference more than you can possibly imagine. Cinven will be paid off by Feb 1 and the company will still have well over $400M when it makes that payment. So how in your screwed up view of the world does Cinven get Amco back once that payment is made?
FullReversal wrote:
The company will survive with the assets, from all indications, to be owned by Cinven (Amco) and First Secured Notes holder(s) (non-Amco).
It's the common stock price is what won't survive. I don't think you longs in denial understand the difference here?
They might as well rename "Amco" to "Acme" from the Looney Tunes era.
Roadrunner being the Wall Street crowd/"Bookrunner" and Private Equity.
Coyote being the average dumb investor still holding this toxic stock!