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Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R



TSX:CXR.R - Post by User

Post by ConfidentDDon Oct 16, 2016 9:18am
144 Views
Post# 25348363

Megabear. Some Answers for You

Megabear. Some Answers for YouSaw your post with questions get composted by the spammers. Some info you could consider is: the take all notes just got taken up as Senior Secured First Lien Notes, 5.5 years at 9% for a total of US$350M. (CXRS market cap is US$187M) Who bought them? I would think any party who wants to salvage their position in this necrotic business model. Here's a thesis. CXR SP is in a death spiral. New shorts are selling to shorts who are covering. CXR will file for bankruptcy protection soon. Debt holders will get to work out their portions largely behind closed doors (as you adeptly described the sophisticated players do). Common stock disappears. Everyone gets giant tax losses this year. MT, who never had global operating or leadership experienced gets replaced by Alan Oberman who will be kept on to lead a private company and rework the business. The current management will be completely replaced, except maybe at AMCo, until Oberman builds his own team. Shareholder lawsuits will fall over Niagara in a barrel, never to be seen again. All surplus cash will be used to pay interest and principal on the most senior notes. If its a going concern, the company may IPO after 5.5 years. This is how the big debtholders do "the big get even". Please note that I haven't even mentioned the drug portfolio. That is because, the only info pipeline there has been about the actual business came from management, and no one will believe them anymore. What to do with all this? Its up to you. Being short this company has been and still is the trade of the year. Keep going with your research. Good luck.
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