Tivan Ltd V.TVN

My prediction on GRC and its value for the future

[mmodano]

Here's my prediction for next year regarding GRC's SP. I would like to read other people's predictions from this board as well. I don't have access to secret information so take my point of view for what it's worth. Don't be afraid to challenge my scenario if it doesn't make sense to you.

1) People that invested in GRC mainly for the dividend (I am one of them) are either already gone (hence the high volume today and right after the 20% cut in May), about to sell their shares if the price does not increase at around 0.18$ until next Friday. There are also some people that will not sell and are waiting for news before doing anything (my strategy). Probably a negative.

2) Instutitional investors are almost all gone (except for Nutall who mentionned a while back on BNN that he was still thinking about what to do). I'd be very surprised to see the large investors left selling in panick at this price considering all the positive changes that happened recently, so that's a neutral and definitely not a positive for at least 2 years.

3) Many people lost money with GRC this year and left the company after the Q2 results when the SP was around 0.35/0.40$. I believe that a majority of these investors left because of the fear of losing more but were still believing in the business model of GRC. As stated earlier today, I can't blame investors who left after all the poor decisions taken by the previous managers. It's like a new start without a bankrupcy today. People will be skeptical for a while but 2 or 3 good news past the recent ones (new royalties, positive news on the existing ones, no undeserved bonuses to the management unless it's backed by a stellar performance during no less than 4 consecutive quarters, a P/E below 9, etc. ) and the interest for the new GRC will rise fast. A definite positive and a powerful catalyst after at least one good, unplanned annoucement, especially if combined with no stupid decisions from management.

I think we'll see the SP at 0.15$ before 0.20/0.22$ in 2016. Depending on how you can handle the volatility, it could be a great buying opportunity. Personally I will not double my position in GRC until we get some good news announced but I might buy a few thousand more if I see a dip at 0.14$ or lower in October. And when I'll hear good news from GRC, I will quickly invest more. A lot more.