RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:TRX
You can wait for Yosprala numbers to come in, and that's a valid strategy, but you risk missing on a gap-up based on those numbers or other business development etc etc. The bulk of a stock's increase for the year happens on 2 or 3 trading days. ARLZ could also announce tomorrow they've been purchased for $10/share for a cash deal thus ending the entire TRX/POZN/ARLZ story. Nobody knows.
This hypothetical scenario you described has yet to happen with the company we are discussing. If we knew 12 months ago that the party does not start until 2017, then there are even less odds of any of these scenarios happening.
Odds of a buy out at this early in the game are not realistic. Maybe years into the future once ARLZ has grown, sure.
Now, what you are suggesting is entirely possible when the company is thriving and shareholders are simply itching for the next catalyst. It's sorta like... why sell when you know that there is so much happening in near term on the horizion and there has been enough momentum week after week with good/positive developments. The entire premise of this scenario gives one very little reason to sell. I felt TRX was in this position when I discovered them in late April 2015.
But that has not been the case for ARLZ. And it shoulda been very clear when the M&A was announced that it won't be happening until 2017 (or Yosprala shows revenue).
I've got a practice margin account that I play around with, but it's always a losing proposition. My only winners are buy and hold investments in my real accounts.
Worth learning how to do!
For the record, I am not just a trader. I do not think it is worth being inflexible when it comes to making money. If the situation calls for trading, great. If it calls for being long, great. All of this is a case by case sort of application and is highly circumstancial.
And if you invest in what you think are sound management teams, you tend to make money over time.
I agree. But this is not a valid retort to the argument I presented.
I have to conclude the market is treating ARLZ irrationally. I can't for one instant think a bunch of bozo traders have the inside track of Yosprala adoption when Aralez probably doesn't even know yet. If you project 150M revenue for 2017 with relative profitability, trading at 2x is a super big bargain
Well, as I suggested before, while nothing happens on the business development front (in terms of generating revenue on the biz front), you can have a short bias against the company. This does not discredit the business or the drug potential. It simply is taking advantage of a stagnant business. Because, I am sure we can agree, the show does not start until Yosprala shows us the $. And that is going to be demonstrated (unless we get guidance on Q3) in Q1 2017. So, if we were to assess the odds thus far (given our historical performance), do you think the share price is going up until then...?
And, I am not suggesting that these "bozo traders" have some sort of front running or insider knowledge. Just is sorta common sense.