RE:API /EIA Numbers are Bogus.Oil Shortage Brewing. This report is what you want to read, look at page 90 it shows we are still over producing by 500,000
bbls as of q3. Look at how it has come down over the quarters. Based on this info if OPEC cuts 500,000 bbls we have a balanced market.
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm