RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:interesting view on peak oil by shell
Doug my bellyache comment had absolutely nothing to do with you being up or down on iae, it has 100% to do with your predictions on the price of oil. you have posted in the past that oil will be $100 a barrel by year end and then proceding to 150. my point being that artticles like that must make you ponder your ( over exuberant imho ) stance on where oil is going or how high.
as far as your 55% holding, a few things to ponder. (like kensho, this would never come close to happening in my portfolio)
1. don't forget pofs-1 was originally built in 1977 and has been sitting in salt water ever since.
2. reserves are not really that high and imho stella will have a fairly quick decline rate so iae needs high poo especially thru 1st year to finance increasing reserves either thru exploration or aquisition. don't think bank will increase money available untill they prove they can pay back a significant amount with stella online.
3. not much in the way of hedges left so it's all about poo, which is a krap shoot no matter what is said by the bulls and bears. i believe iae needs higher oil otherwise we would have seen at least at bit more hedging in the low 50's and we haven't.
4. insiders have not been buyers so why would you have anywhere near that much of your funds invested in a company that management doesn't support their s/p, they just issue cheap options.
here's my .02 worth of advice on what i would do if i was you (god forbid, lol)
sell at least 1/2 probably 2/3's just before start up, maybe a day or 2 before as we should see a nice run up in s/p to that point, this way you remove the risk of glitches on start up, guarantee your triple, and take a lot of risk off the table. then ride your free shares if you have faith in the company which you obviously have, and i obviously do not long term.
I'll leave you with this famous parting quote on stocks
"bulls make money, bears make money, PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED"
cheers and gl ferret