RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:interesting view on peak oil by shellKensho, Ferret
Thanks for the replies.
Price of oil - agree that my estimate of $100 oil by year end is not going to be correct. If the iea data from 3 months ago had held then we could have headed a lot closer but they have backed off on that now, they have made it clear that disrupted supply has come back much harder now, so much so it appears that without OPEC action we will be could be sub $55 until the Spring.
Still prevalent in my thinking is the delay from oil sector investment cuts to supply consequence, this typically being 1.5 to 5 years depending upon the nature of the oil source. So I still expect high oil prices going forward but it is all going to take a little longer. This seems to hvae been a feature of my investing calls generally, usually correct but it takes much longer to unfold than I initially expected.
Re Ithaca. Trimmiing back my winners a little soon has been my single most costly mistake looking back. The 55% Ithaca holding was not at that level when I bought, nearer 25%, so the 55% has arisen from gains relative to other holdings.
Suppose we sat round a table with the likes of Buffett, Lynch, Neff, Munger, Greenblatt etc and asked their view. The weight of opionion would side with your views I think but it would not be clear cut, there would be some debate, most of the above supported allowing outsized holdings to run for the private investor when the case was compelling, although 55% of the total would stretch this approach to the limit for some if not all of them.
First oil beckons, a setback triggering a say 30% pull back would not overly alarm me - I think that to lighten now so close to first oil would feel like a misguided psycholgical capitulation, that is just a very personal view as to how I would feel towards myself about lightening right now - anyway, we should know a little more in 11 days time.
Doug