RE:Question about valueCoff3e wrote: Before we get the results from HL1/3/4,
I remember there was discussion on this board suggesting that based on "what we have" the SP would be around 40-50 cents
looking at the August 16 news release, the only thing mentioned was results from LU D12 samples.
the sept 14 news release only mentioned HL 1/3/4.
does this mean the 40-50 cent evaulation was only with LU D12? and that also means even if the results of HL 1/3/4 aren't great we should still be valued around 40-50 cents?
Here my opinion regarding the valuation.
Based on the large number of Lithium companies active in both Canada and Australia it seems that if a company has demonstrated that the areas it has contain enough Lithium to make it a commercially viable business to go mining the MC (market cap) goes to 20M$. If this would happen to NTY with its approximately 50mil shares the SP would go to 40cents.
But for a commercially viable resource the market has to believe that there is at least 10MT of Li2O in the ground. The results for LU 12 were good but only amount to about 3MT of Li2O. So more is needed. The HL1, 3, and 4 are very new dykes and little is know about them. So the market is in doubt despite the fact that the news does say that "spodumene was visibly identified". So now it comes down to the Lithium % in the spodumene which the samples will tell us. If these are "off-scale" then I am convince the MC will go to the 20M$. Notice that all these 3 new dykes are longer then LU12. So even with similar Lithium content they will have more Lithium. I have made a small calculation that if the average width of the dykes is 5m (conservative as they are 5 meter at surface), have a depts of 50m (again conservative as in this area the pegmatites typically go about 100m deep) and we have an average Lithium content of 1.5% we are looking at approx 22MT in the 4 dykes together. That would most certainly warrent a MC of 20m$!
So yes, my target is 40cents as soon as the news hit!
You may want to check out what happened with CXO in Australia recently (September). They went from 8M$ to 38M$ when they proofed their land had Lithium! Very similar situation as NTY is in right now.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX%3ACXO&ei=tkAqWMmdGJGCsAGYo4uoCg&ed=us