RE:RE:RE:Chen Lin
Note that the COS's in the presentation are GEOLOGIC, not COMMERCIAL. Sometimes the two
are pretty close and sometimes GCOS is much higher then CCOS. I have seen MANY wells
called geologically successful because they found what might have been reservoir rock (if only
there had been oil in it), or have found an "active hydrocarbon system", which seems to be
another way of saying that there's no seal and those hydrocarbons are actively escaping to
the surface.
Even if you use GCOS to risk, then POE's 50% looks like ~15mm bbls, and their net-of-GOI
amount would be 2.5mm bbls. Say they make US$20/bbl, for $50m, then time-discount at 10%
to drop back down to US$25m, so the RISKED value per share is about C$0.60.
If using GCOS reults in C$0.60/share, then using CCOS might be, say C$0.45. Add in cash, Batu Gajah, Sawn Lake and Thailand and current share price is not an unreasonable place to
buy, however the real reason to buy is speculation that Jabung turns out much better than the
risking process currently makes it look.