OTCPK:CRUUF - Post by User
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PositionTradeon Nov 17, 2016 2:12am
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Post# 25473273
RE:strong buy rate - based on my model JMHO
RE:strong buy rate - based on my model JMHO
That is just level 1 thinking. And the "probability to win" is a highly speculative estimation with big uncertainty. To more accurately evaluate the situation we need level 3 or level 4 thinking, which I may discuss later.
About levels of thinking, refer to : Keynesian beauty contest in wiki.
That said: "It is not a case of choosing those [faces] that, to the best of one's judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those that average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees." (Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936)."