VRX or CXR....?
Who thinks both will survive....?.....Who thinks both will both go under.....?......or is it likely that one will make it and the other will expire...........?
If you think one or both will cease to exist, how long will it take for bondholders, etc. to pull the plug (i.e, will it be a long slow death spanning years, or will investors wake up one day in the next 12 months to see the company(s) have filed for bankruptcy protection)............?
Does one stand a better chance of surviving than the other.........?
If you had to only short / be long on one as things stand today, which one would it be and at what strike price would you cover / sell......?
Here's my two cents (which may be more than a share of one of these companies is worth someday).....
I think VRX may be done in by being overwhelmed with lawsuits over the next number of years....I think VRX has more runway than CXR in terms of cash coming into the business, attractive assets they can probably sell for a good buck, etc., but the Philidor mess plus legal actions by other parties and the U.S. government could be fatal..........
CXR is scarier short-term in my view.......Their assets appear much less attractive to potential suitors......not to mention the declining U.S. business, the UK bill re. price controls on generics, the delays in earn out payments. the debt handcuffing CXR from expanding their business to other countries (this takes money), the likelihood that their sales reps have probably either already joined another company or are shopping their resumes to get out while they can......
Bottom line: I think both companies are at a significant risk of filing for bankrputcy protection, but my guess would be that CXR is more vulnerable over the short term than VRX is.......
What say you kids.......?