Back of the envelopeTo add to the conversation on fundamental analysis consider these "back of the envelope" assumptions and share price valuation for 2017:
- $50 Brent average hedged/unhedged realized price in 2017
- $20 OPEX
- 340 days production (to account for downtime and normal maintenance)
- 20-25k daily production so let's use 22,500 to be conservative.
- 433,724,046 fully diluted shares outstanding including all in-the-money options
- CNDN$ exchange rate = 1.30 (remember that we are paid in $US but calculate cfps and share price in $Cndn)
- sp target = 3 X cfps (to use a conservative multiplier)
Calculation: ($30 X 340 X 22,500 X 1.3 / 433,724,046) X 3 =
$2.06.