RE:RE:RE:RE:Maybe a silly questionFor a thorough description of the prospect, look on Page 25 of the Annual Information Form,
under the D&M section. Look to the first table, where you'll see the Low (P90), Best (P50) and
High (P10) that you've already seen on the presentation. Then look at the associated GCOS,
which mean-averages out to 22.5%. The final column is what's often called the "Risked
Prospective", which is the GCOS applied to the Mean Estimate. XOP's Risked Prospective is
17% of that, or ~109mm bbl.
Keep in mind that the Risked Prospective is very much an abstraction, a number that
companies can use in deciding whether to risk the very high costs of further exploration,
and a number that speculators (us) can use in determining whether to bet on the stock.
They will NOT find 109mm bbls. They will either find far more than that, or far less than that,
down to zero.
Further, you might do some adjustments on that 22.5% GCOS. Several considerations:
1. That's GCOS, not CCOS. So adjust down.
2. D&M - like all other such companies - is paid by the owners of the lease (XOM/XOP). They
know what side their bread is buttered on. Maybe some day someone will do a huge study
of how much companies like D&M adjust-up their estimates to stay in the good graces of
their clients. Rest assured, it is significant, so adjust down again.
3. As Stockmaison has pointed out, Exxon may very well believe they have somewhat better
odds than D&M thought they had two years ago, due to technological improvements. So
adjust up.
Personally, I'm putting the risk factor at 20%, Applying that to the Gross Best Estimate gives
a Gross Risked Prospective of 529mm bbls, and a Net (to XOP) Risked Prospective of
90mm bbls. Further, I'll put my finger in the wind and assume a $10/bbl operating profit,
so $900m. I'll time-discount that down to $400m, then I'll put XOP's share of capex at $120mm.
I'll assume the least attractive way of raising that money - a stock offering - which they should
be able to do at .40, so 300mm more shares, or 1.2b fully diluted.
US$400m for 1.2b shares would be $US0.33/share, or C$0.445, a 128% premium to the last
bid price.
44.5 centiloonies is probably far less than others' estimates, but keep in mind that this is a
RISKED estimate. It has geologic, technical, political, commercial, and market risks built in.
The eventual number will either be multiples of this or - much more likely - it will be close to
zero. Still, if I could be assured that all my bets would pay off 128% ON AVERAGE, I'd make
those bets all day, every day.