Musing at end of weekSo here we sit at the end of the week with a stock trading in the $1.80 to $2.00 Cdn with a drug that is in a phase 3 BETonMACE trial with apabetalone.
The sharp rise in price and volume starting Sept 13th and then levelling is sort of holding in even as the proposed new royalty structure was announced. I like that royalty structure because of my Zenith shares. However, that value is way into the distant future IMHO.
I do not believe prior knowledge by someone about the roylaty changes drove the share and volume up. So what did drive it? It's beyond me but the promise of a licensing deal might be a good suspect.
Some analysts have suggested that a company with a drug in phase 3 trials should be trading in the $5.00 plus range. So I think it is fair to ask what is holding the stock back? So here are my brain dump thoughts;
- Lack of credibility, which in a large part still reflect the vestiges of ASSURE in June 2013.
- Lack of credibility in the USA trading market because there is no NASDAQ listing.
- There is also no will to attain a NASDAQ listing.
- Lack of an FDA approval of BETonMACE trials (this may happen but it's an unknown).
- Don's claim of an 8 year lead in epigentic research...really? (actually I believe it but but I am not an authority on any of this).
- The structure of the shareholdings - dominance of Eastern, NGN, Hepalink and Don.
- Some feel the pending renewal of the LOC is a vulnerability.
- Don has done very little to dispell issues such as the LOC (the LOC does not worry me for a minute).
- The fact that after all of this time Astra Zenica (with Crestor) does not seem to be chasing apabetalone. Of course they may well be chasing RVX but there is no evidence of it.
- The fact that the field of epigenetics has not yet had any major health care victories and thus has not become hot in the eyes of investors.
- Don.
- Poor communications ...although from my perspective there has been a very significant improvement on the scientific side of communications.
- The fact that at this stage there is nothing to sell to generate revenue. Now of course this is not true because there are compounds and the blood bank and processes that have potential BUT we have not seen any action yet. Even a bit of income could have a significant impact.
Anyway, I'm just trying to organize my thoughts and rambling away. I remain convinced, based on the post hoc findings including the MACE findings, that RVX and Zenith are on to something very big in the area of oral compounds and treatments of many conditions related to inflammation, etc.
It remains to be seen if rvx-208/apabetalone will be successful in the 3 point MACE trial called BETonMACE But that is where I am putting some of my money.
So DYODD and GLTA.
Enjoy the Grey Cup.
Cheers
Toinv