RE:Musing at end of weekSo a couple more thoughts...nothing new...just junk I need to get out of my head.
- Pre Sept 13th the stock was trading at about $1.20.
- After that it shot up to a peek of about $2.30.
- Now It has settled at about $1.80.
- So if some investors wanted in and were in a position to take profit and their base was around the $1.00 to $1.30 level or higher it would have been a good return depending on the length of time they had been involved.
- Also, the question is, what drove that increase in demand and price? It seems the most obvious answer is a new licensing deal (possibly correlated with the NYC presentation). However, in all of the posts for the past 4 months or so none of us has come up with any insight in spite of all of the great posts and research on IV, Agora and SH. I certainly have added zero insight.
- We know that presentations at scientific conferences have had zero measurable correlation to share price. That does not mean I am not a supporter of these presentations. They are still important to send out the Zenith and Resverlogix messages and more importantly the epigenetic message.
- My personal belief is that if Crick or Watson(double helix) (which ever one is living) was right in stating that epigenetics is the future of medicine and the fact that Dr Wong picked up on this 10 years ago and altered his journey AND we have now seen the post hocs and incredible understanding of the MOA of apabetalone (rvx-208) and the move into phase 3 BETonMACE is a strong vote that this is fundamental organic chemistry and natural and it impact multiple systems in the body.
- Now what I would love to see is some early findings on the zen3694 on mCRPC trial, even the pre enzalutimde trail phase. Positive results here in terms of markers would be a wonderful credibility builder for the specific compound but also the Zenith scaffolds and epigenetics.
So I guess it is pretty obvious that I am very hopeful for both the RVX and Zenith
epigenetic approaches. I wish I had more insight on chemical scaffolds...their uniqueness, difficulty to create and patentability.
Of course as I have mused many times before I wonder why Astra Zenica (Crestor) is not snooping seriously around apabetalone (rvx-208) given the post hocs on MACE. With zen3694 and mCRPC it is probably too soon for Pfizer with enzalutimde to be sniffing in. But if this trial starts to show a hint of success, unless they have alternatives or if Zenith and RVX are just small town invisible companies, they (Pfizer or an opportunistic competitor) should be looking. One hit will blow both companies through the roof IMHO!
I have always believed that many BPs have had a look at RVX/Zenith but what Dart wants is way beyond their risk profile at this stage. I sense that one good trial would be a start (and perhaps only a start).
That is why I started to think that part of Don's chess game is not to be a slave to BP. I believed that Hepalink was a downstream marketer and distributor but from what I understand now they wholesale to BP. That is good in the sense that BP trusts their quality. Hepalink has also bought into pharma in the USA so perhaps there is a bridge to downstream.
So the next licensing deal will be a big signal as to Don's chess game.
What do we know?
- Hepalink is in.
- NGN is in.
- Eastern is in.
- We're in phase 3 BETonMACE on a 3 point MACE definition. Will it meet that criteria? The 5 point post hoc data were incredible but 3 point is a new game.
- This (CVD, diabetes melitus, low HDL) market is huge and growing throughout the world and especially in Asia.
- RVX and Zenith drugs are oral (lower cost and home administered).
- We're in an FDA approved mCRPC trial with zen3694.
- RVX and Zenith according to Don have an 8 year epigenetic lead (??????we'll see....frankly I'm not sure what that really means or if I believe it).
This extremely high risk stuff. So be careful. There are big risks on the scientific side and the business side. I do sense that Don, if he retains control, will not screw us long timers but I do not know him and even if I did I have no idea what he would do under various pressure situations.
Anyway, just rambling. I hope I may spark a thought or 2 from others that can move our collective thoughts ahead.
At the end of the day it will be a solid scientific discovery that will blow this little stock through the roof.
It seems to me that the restructuring of royalties is a significant event. It reflects a better understanding of the MOA of apabetalone and more importantly their understanding of the platforms they have built.
Having been involved as a long shareholder for 10 years (I used to say 8 years but time has gone by) the one thing that strikes me is the
incredible increase in knowledge by the teams at RVX and Zenith. It strikes me that pre ASSURE they had hypothesis but post ASSURE with the detailed diagnostics their significant understanding of the MOA of apabetalone. It strikes me that this is part of the equity...that is, the learning culture!
Anyway, GLTA
Toinv