RE:RE:The Cut Will HappenUm... bandit, your posts are indeed really confusing.
I understand money and where it comes from and the role played by interest rates. I don't understand why you making a couple accurate predictions makes everyone else a blind egoist. Let's fact it, the predictions you made were also made by a lot of other people, including Scott Saxberg - he just thought the cut would come sooner.
I'm long CPG. I've held on and added through the downturn. Averaging down and shorting are really just two different strategies to try and profit from a falling stock price. CPG won't have to rebound very much now and I'll do very well. Maybe I'll sell then. I know that by holding on and averaging down I risk getting roasted by a complete price collapse. But shorters risk getting squeezed on a sudden rebound. Some shorts are feeling a bit of pain today.
Anyway, averaging down is a rational strategy that could well succeed. You may disagree but no one, even you, really knows what the heck the markets will do next. It's got nothing to do with human ego. Shorters are as egotistical as longs - in fact I'd argue moreso!! :-)
Back to why your posts are confusing. You suggest the Saudi's are brilliant. If that is the case they should have done their IPO before they cut the price of oil in half. They have done huge damage their own fiscal position and they have not killed the North American shale industry. They are cutting production now out of desperation, not because they have achieved their goals and can get back to business.
Now, you're saying with great confidence CPG is going to continue to dilute and take on debt, that it's the most perfectly bad investment you've ever seen. With such clairvoyance I guess you are shorting the heck out it. But on balance you have to admit (or do you have too much ego to do so?) that there may be better shorting opportunities out there than CPG. Lots of stocks are at or near record highs. Some of them are headed for a fall. CPG is way down from its highs and the outlook is reasonably favourable for the price of its product.
Did you know CPG has large land holdings in the US and could ultimately benefit from a trump administration that supports domestic production? Did you know that during times of inflation oil and oil stocks can do really well? Did you consider that the Saudis could simply engineer further cuts in OPEC production if a rising US dollar undercuts the rise in oil prices?
I could easly be wrong in staying long. I know I'm taking a risk but that's what investing is all about. But I feel it's a smarter strategy right now, on balance, than shorting.
We'll see.
bandit69 wrote: bandit69 wrote: I said from day 1 this is not 2009. I explained in great detail why. OPEC production cut will happen. It has to since the Fed will be raising interest rates in December. That will further juice the USD and drive oil down without a production cut. The USD is breaking out now heading for a bull run. OPEC knows this and its why they are all desperate for a deal. There will be more jawboning until then while they play both sides of the coin shorting and long when appropriate in the media to fleece traders and market players like the have all along. Oil revenues may have dropped for Saudi but they have made a lot up on the trade for 2 years now. Until a deal occurs jawboning will continue.
I might eat crow (and i am fully prepared to if so) but that would be a slim chance. It's all about the Fed and monetary policy as I have been saying here for quite awhile. I've called CPG all the way down yet of course nobody listens while they lose their shirts.
In December of 2014 I said here in a post this oil price crash would last about 2 years and here we are. Go back and check my posts if you so choose but I highly doubt anyone will. Why? ego.
A business cannot sustain itself if it does not generate enough cash. The only way a party can continue when a business does not generate enough cash is by debt, equity financings, asset sales or it is bankruptcy. Access to capital in some form under the guise of acquisitions is key to survival for such a business model. hmmmmm...........
CPG is the most beautiful equity I have ever watched. In my decades in the market now CPG is the best example I have ever seen in the markets on what NOT to buy....ever!! Even after my time in the markets I have learned a ton about human psychology here and, most important, the human ego and how it let's people destroy themselves in markets. So much money to be made by exploiting the human ego.
Again, it's all about the Fed.
Once again I told you what would happen and here we sit with the oil agreement that I said would happen today after all of the jawboning from OPEC. Yet STILL people's ego's can't let them accept it.
I also said this would takeabout 2 years and that's exactly what it took..........almost to the day
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.cpg/crescent-point-energy-corp?postid=23178912
I did this in 2008 and 9 as well.....made a ton of cash. I have also called CPG all the way down. Of course nobody listened and the old money has been wiped out as you can see by the new users on this board....meaning new money.
I forgot to add in my post about the cut that Saudi is also trying to do a trillion $ IPO. Only CPG slaughters its shareholders by diluting at lower and lower prices. Saudis are smarter than that since they are major shareholders obviously unlike CPG where most are just salary takers.
Who will finance a trillion dollar IPO with Saudi when at the same time Saudi is crushing it's only commodity that their entire business is dependent on? Does it make sense? of course not. Watch for the IPO now.
I've seen the response to my "the cut will happen" post that my post is confusing to read.....maybe, but only because you don't understand money, how it works, where it comes from and most important, how the one little interest rate that the Fed controls, dictates the direction of the world over all else.
Now, listen to this, do not expect a miracle with CPG because of this OPEC deal. Watch for more dilution and /or debt. Yes you will see a share price bounce from the results of an announced cut but it will euphoria will taper off and reality will hit again.
Not much else to say other than the interest rate in December is next and will happen as I have said here many many times now but again nobody believes or listens. As I said before, the human ego is a wealth destroyer.