RE:RE:RE:RE:if you fimancial advisor doesn't have you in WEF. Fire him? Hey goal, I bailed as well.
For nostalga though, the rise from oblivion was epic. Under a dollar to 2.50 in months it seemed back in 2012/13. WEF just had an amaizing run.
However, WEF just don't have much more room to run, fundamentally. WEF can slowly move up, but they need to make some changes. Fix the balance sheet (too little debt is not efficient.) E.g. they made $35M last quarter. It's good conditions, as you hear quite clearly on this board. Call that $140M in earning annually. Well, good, right? Nope. The market cap is basically equal to the EV at $780M.
How much will rational investors 'pay' for $140M in earnings? On the low side 3x (Tembec, Canfor Pulp), the middle range is 5x, and the sector favs maybe 6x. My problem is WEF is pretty close to fully valued unless earnings pick up. You guys are at 5.64x by my calcs. What kind of special snowflake can command a higher multiple in our hard-knocks sector? Not many. You can hit 6.5x EBITDA, implying you'll add ~120M in capitilization, or 33 cents a share.
Cash is only part of it of course, the market is not rational. But I went looking for the next 'WEF Circa 2012' and bought Temebc at $1.30 two weeks ago. Ask me how I'm doing there. Spoiler alert: I kinda got rich. They have nearly twice the earnings power of WEF but have been so bad, for so long, the price was guttered.
If I was your financial advisor, I'd maybe have you weighted in WEF proportionality to you age, in some circumstances based on risk and long-term value. Timberlnads are very safe, and they have them. Zero WEF for anyone under 35 years old (it won't grow under Don). However, for older folks it's OK. It's a great stock b/c of it's both timberlands and dividends. So, if you want something safe and easy (and flat) stay here. But, is it even the safest? Probably not -- that's likely Canfor Pulp. They have massive cashflow and less equity value than WEF mostly because their CEO, the other Don, couldn't strategize his way out of a wet paper bag. Well, outside of the USA South SYP buy-up, that was good but he was just playing me-too with Hank at WFT.
Anyway, do your own due diligence and all that jazz but how do you make some serious cash? Cut your losses; let you gains run. And find something that is either a momentum play or fundamentally undervalued and has room to grow. And don't always trust the analysts; their cleints do well, but the teeming masses not so much, most of the time. Shoot, I had WEF at a price point of 2.57 at one point in time. I am thrilled I ate that loss because if I was still waiting it out, well, FML.