RE:RE:RE:Poor MonkeySpankDoug2B wrote: Come, come now Monkey, let us reason together:
Even if the OPEC deal deflates, oil may fall sub $40 for a while, probably sub $45 for a quarter, $45 to $55 Q3 and moving on in Q4 or soon after as delpetion eventually starts to catch up with the under investment. If Ithaca reach full production in March/April as expected (from Jan build up) we may be at $45 per per barrel, that is not great for Ithaca but not a threat - such a low price would be a severe threat by then for OPEC Russia and other higher cost producers.
So time is Doug's friend here, given time the oil price will come back.
As for Ithaca, again, time is Doug's friend. The odds are 10/1 now that FPF-1 will produce before the winter. It is all moving Doug's way, you know it is. Even if things went badly wrong and the price plunged 50%, that is only a 30% hit to Doug's portfolio, just 1 years long term average gains, Doug is happy with that risk profile given the likely upside. The odds are in his favour and the risk of ruin is very low indeed - a 30% portfolio loss or even a 50% portfolio loss is not ruin.
Anyway, who is this Vlad character you keep talking about?
Doug
LOL. Now just who is this Vlad Fellow??? Agreed, if EVERYTHING stays the same then sure time is on your side and you'll make money. Problem is Doug, EVERYTHING seldom stays the same. And from that perspective Time is definitely NOT on your side. Just saying. But hey best of luck and I hope it works out